Sunday, December 21, 2008

Finance Year in Review

Interesting statistic - the average person in the US saved money this year - 2.4 percent of income as of the most recent report. (http://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/national/pi/pinewsrelease.htm) Not much, but it's better than the negative numbers of previous recent years. Interesting when tracked historically that the number has never exceeded 15 percent http://www.bea.gov/bea/dn/nipaweb/Nipa-Frb.asp

How do I stack up?

Since I've now been at one address with one job for over a year the finances are stable enough to note (sale of house excluded from the numbers below - only job income counted)

Percent of total pre tax income to:
Income Tax - 21% set aside in deductions - based on previous years this is pretty accurate
Rent and Utilities - 23%
401k - 8%
Money Market Savings - 28%
General spending - food/gas/travel/clothing/stuff - 20%

Other interesting facts - The interest gains in the mm-savings account did not offset the losses due to some optimistic stock bets in my 401k - total investments are down 1.6% on the year.

Rent and utilities are high in an absolute sense - though offset by very small gasoline expenditures - no gas for the commute and errands works out to less than a tank per month.

I had the sense there was going to be a stock market drop and rearranged the 401k, but not enough apparently. I also rearranged a bit post-correction, though still a bit risky. It will probably be a year until things really start to turn around and post small gains there.

General spending also seems high in an absolute sense - but then there's the quality of life quotient... http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122955255403315677.html ... I suppose it's a small price to pay.

Happy Winter Solstice!

Sunrise: 7:55AM, planned Sunset 4:20PM... not even 8.5 hours of daylight on the shortest day of the year when you're this far north.

It has been a nice winter week - got a couple inches of snow on Wednesday - cold since then so it hasn't melted. Then a couple more inches last night to cover up the sanded/slushed ice with new white snow. It's apparently pretty rare to have this much snow near the sound.

(The inland suburbs have had about a foot total by now)

Not that I'm complaining - it has limited the consumerist Christmas rush - people walking around downtown are shopping, but the snow is at least as interesting it seems.

Quiet morning - coffee - NPR - headed to the market when the vendors typically set up in an hour or so.

That's the news from Seattle.

Wednesday, December 17, 2008

Too organized?

So last night I ironed all existing clothes in the closet and then organized them.

There are 7 respectable shirts (5 button down linen, 2 polo) with matching pants for the work week - those go in the middle part. I oddly never mix the shirts to different pants b/c then there's a disparity that will result in having an unmatched pair of pants at the end of the cycle. (Won't wear a black shirt with brown pants, so on)

Then there is the suit, two suit shirts: one standard cuff and one french cuff, and two 'nice' shirts for going out to dinner.

Then there is the ratty pair of jeans and two pairs of hiking/camping pants.

Anything that doesn't fit me anymore or doesn't fit the organizational scheme is now either rags or donated.

This is one of those odd moments of equilibrium in the wardrobe. No clothes are to be bought until the number of available outfits drops to 3 (one load of laundry)

It may sound boring, but I don't like to think about what to wear - I just want to wear it and consign thinking to other areas of life. It's not like it's an entire closet full of white shirts and grey pants... I don't work for a bank (presently).

Thursday, December 11, 2008

Survey Says

In Seattle, coffee capital of the US... 8 computer nerds are in class (4 locals, 4 people that moved here from eleswhere, including me) - the morning beverages of choice are as follows:

2 green tea, 1 black tea, 1 earl grey, 1 coffee (the Hawaiian)

Random observation.

Wednesday, November 12, 2008

The next 10 years.

This is from everything I've read/followed what has happened over the last decade - time may add more details/corrections/sarcasm.

- Tech boom/bust - economic downturn.
- Government issued lots of debt to the rest of the world to get cash.
- This cash was then lent out at low interest rates to banks.
- Since the stock market wasn't producing large enough gains for investors after the tech bust, the government promoted home ownership. People viewed this as the next great investment.
- Banks which could get lots of low interest cash from the government lent to consumers at low mortgage rates.
- Easier/cheaper mortgages led to increased demand for homes, which in turn raised home prices.

(Insert note here that average wages have been essentially flat since 2000)

- Given flat incomes, people reacted to the higher home prices by taking on more debt to buy a new home, or by taking out home equity lines of credit to take equity out of their investment to buy things or vacations or whatever (essentially re-buying their existing home at a higher amount).
- Banks saw huge gains in the 'value' of their mortgage portfolios, securitized them and started trading them on that speculative value.
- Long standing income ratios and documentation requirements for mortgages were relaxed so that the banks could get more mortgages to trade. (Which required more people to take on more debt to cover the resulting higher prices)

(Reminder that wages have been essentially flat since 2000)

- At some point (November 2007 by most accounts) this cycle snapped - people started defaulting on their mortgage debt since the interest payments alone in some cases were more than could be paid back.
- As these mortgages were foreclosed upon and resold at auction the value was less than that of the mortgage.
- The securities that contained these mortgages became less valuable as a result. Investment banks then rapidly stopped buying securitized mortgages.
- Since these securities couldn't be traded for a profit anymore, companies that had leveraged to buy them started failing...

- The government realized that some former-governmental entities such as Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, along with the companies that insured them (AIG) and some companies with powerful lobbyists or people in the administration (Goldman Sachs) were involved in these trades as well and could fail.

- So, the answer, in the form of the bailout, was to attempt to 'fix' the prices of these mortgage securities at certain levels and have the government buy them from the 'too big to fail' companies.

- Simple economics has proved price-fixing impossible throughout history, the bailout money has since been basically given to the various companes without any assets in exchange so that as they encounter margin calls they can pay their losses on these securities.

(Important note here - the bailout is financed not with existing taxpayer money, but with more government debt - we as a country are taking out debt to pay for the losses on excessive debt held by our financial institutions and citizens)

- Now this bailout is being extended to any lending institution - auto loans, credit cards, so on.

What then is the incentive to play by the rules and live within your means? If there is a huge government safety net waiting if you default on your debt, why not buy the Lexus and a huge house...

There has to eventually be some huge unintended consequence of all this debt, now proxied to a national level... it's just a matter of what and when.

I thought at one point it might be currency valuation... US dollar losing serious value compared to other currencies, but it seems to some degree other countries made the same mistakes as the US so that's pretty stable for now.

What else could happen? Don't know... though it will be interesting when it happens I'm sure...

Thursday, November 6, 2008

Update

So, it's been a month or so - what's been going on?

- The end of October was pretty quiet - went to a hockey game (local minor leagues team like the Charlotte Checkers - similar atmosphere too) - first event at Key arena - interesting building - too bad it is underutilized now.

- Peggle is a damn addictive game - simple entertainment - follow the bouncy ball - I think the physics model should include air resistance though.

- This weekend there are a couple of concerts I'm interested in - probably will only get to one of them though - Helio Sequence - should be an interesting show.

- Currently reading "On Food And Cooking" by Harold McGee - it's basically the next step in food-nerdiness after reading Alton Brown's "I'm Just Here for the Food (v2.0)" - gets into more of the history of different primary ingredients and what chemical reactions actually define 'cooking' of those ingredients. It's a bit of a textbook style approach, but still very well done and a good balance of entertaining and practical.

--------------- Nerd thoughts warning -----------------

- Ordered a single ended triode tube amplifier kit - should be interesting to see if I can still solder/read resistors

- As an aside to that - I have some sort of odd engineer's affliction... For the last 5 years I have been using a Sony ES amplifier - which worked great and was technically very nice - discrete power circuits per channel, very low distortion, so on... but I have always had this feeling that I was wasting it - it was a 5 channel amp with different sound environments and all kinds of other 'home theater-y' BS - I currently have 2 speakers, which are small - I didn't need all the technical overhead of the ES - so I put it on craigslist. So then I find a solution, which is more expensive, technically less sonically precise, and I have to put it together myself - just so that I will have a pure single input, stereo output, amplifier - there will be less 'waste' in the final application.

(Technically over time it will pay for itself in lower power usage as well, but that's beside the point)

It's an odd 'retro-technology' interest I have... mechanical watches, tube amplifiers, single speed bike...

All are 'old' - there are newer technological solutions which do more, more accurately (Quartz watches, solid state amplification, deraulliers). I guess I just don't like excess features... more for the sake of more... I'd rather apply modern engineering and manufacturing to old technology to get a solution that is accurate enough for everyday use and more, ah, human-understandable, than newer technology.

Perhaps modern life is more of a black box ( http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_box ) world though - the watch tells the time until the battery dies, then a new watch or battery is purchased. The 'stereo' makes music until a newer model with more 'power' or more features becomes available, so on.

For some odd reason I have to know the how/why of everything I use in normal life. And once you find out the how you see the questions arise - why does a watch have to have a battery - why do stereos have 7 channels when music is still only recorded in stereo (vast majority of music that is - however yes, some people watch lots more movies than I do) - why buy convenience food when it's possible to make something better tasting and healthier in less time... so on.

While I concede completely understanding any of these examples down to their minutiae is not practical either, it is a bit enlightening to at least open the boxes that one encounters in everyday life.

Friday, October 10, 2008

Thoughts

/News/Food/

It's local pear and apple season again - time to overdose on fruit.

---------------

/News/Weather/

The rainy season has returned mostly - glad we were able to fit in a final camping trip at the end of the season before the clouds returned - larger pics are at www.maslows.net:12110/rainier/

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/News/Economics/

Earlier in the year I made a few semi-educated guesses about the economy and invested/shuffled the 401k accordingly... let's see how I've done so far.

- with regards to the 401k - moving a vast majority of the equity positions into money market funds was smart - even small % gains are better than nothing.

However I did leave a small bit in equities as an experiment and it has been ugly - pretty much no sector has escaped the downturn and a couple have seen ~50% declines - total amount of value 'lost' year to date has been about 1.5 paychecks - academically bad, but not so in the long term

- real estate - sold the house and have stayed as far away from the housing market as possible, economically - this has been good - and until the rental to monthly payment numbers wherever I live are comparable I'll hold this mentality

- cash - currently just living frugally (no surprise to anyone that knows me I guess) and putting the remainder into higher interest online savings accounts - this is the best use of money right now in my opinion, as the trend is deflationary - just need to be aware that it will flip eventually and not losing value in real terms will matter again

Things that have surprised me - Europe seeing as much downturn as the US - I expected their market to be more conservative than the US banks. As such I strongly considered opening a Euro or CHF denominated account earlier in the year, but if everyone's market weakens together there isn't any advantage to the other currencies. The dollar has strengthened very slightly vs. those two currencies since then, but I think it's just a question of relativity.

The current news/fear about the economy - it's not that bad - if the government would have let the first few banks go bankrupt and actually followed through with a quick and orderly valuation and resale of assets at market prices it would have prevented where we are now. This is the root cause of what is paralyzing the market. No one trusts that the other person's asset valuation is correct or that they are actually solvent. So lending slows and confidence and stock prices decline. How to fix it - throwing money at the banks to prop up 'mark to model' asset values is not the answer - correct and transparent asset valuation is the answer. Let bankruptcy courts sort out the details - they're there for a reason.

---------------

/News/Politics/

Neither candidate has given a good answer as to how they'll deal with the economic mess. Neither has really acknowledged that their grand plans of energy independence and lower taxes will not be feasible given the debt load of the US and its nearly-nationalized banks.

--------------

That's about all for now - now that the clouds have returned I'll probably pick up on the nerd projects I talked about earlier in the year - make a couple speaker enclosures, possibly build a tube amp, play some computer games, read more of the classics, learn a new language, so on... need to be productive with this free time.

Wednesday, September 24, 2008

A slavic german cooks traditional french soup:

So a couple years ago Allison gave me Thomas Keller's Bouchon cookbook. Since then I've read it but only made um, 3 things from it (I'm not big on recipes). However the french onion soup worked out so well I really should dig deeper into this massive book for more inspiration.

And it is more inspiration than actual instruction - as the recipe spends about half a page on actual ingredients and procedures, but an additional page and a half on the quality aspects of it - like where the flavors come from and why even though it sounds interminably long, it is important to cook the onions in the butter for ~5 hours over a very low heat (which essentially turned the Walla Walla local onions into what you'd call candy in a blind tasting - they were that sweet)

I do wish I made the stock as opposed to using store bought though - it didn't add much to the flavor profile of the soup. The onions dominated the soup, and combined with melted emmentaler and local aged cheddar cheese and some croutons made from homemade bread it was an excellent dish.

It's actually really easy and cheap (under $20 for 6 servings - about $3 per serving!) to make - especially if you don't mind leaving a pot unattended on the stove while the onions very slowly melt.

Saturday, September 20, 2008

If you have a dollar denominated savings account, read these.

http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/09/20/no-deal/

http://calculatedrisk.blogspot.com/2008/09/some-thoughts-on-bailout.html

Seems that they're just throwing money at the problem rather than addressing the solution. One last huge giveaway to the favored corporations/supporters before the election I suppose. It's a cynical outlook, but given the information at hand, it may not be far from the truth.

------------------

Oh, and Lucky-Charms-Treats, in the same approach as Rice-Krispy-Treats, is a good idea in theory, but the cereal is too dense in practice. Still tastes good, but has the consistency of a dense melty granola bar rather than a Rice-Krispy-Treat.

Friday, September 19, 2008

How to spend it.

Say you had a trillion dollars. It's a nice round figure. And say you were in a position of leadership of a country.

How would you spend it?

- Destroy some bridges and bunkers on the other side of the world, then oppress the citizens of those countries for a decade?

- Give it to your friends so they can save their failed financial institutions (which they ran into the ground) and still earn their year end bonuses while simultaneously screwing over the individual shareholders and taxpayers?

- Universal healthcare for all citizens of your country, along with lots of nice brand new hosptials?

- Repair all the 50+ year old crumbling transportation and utilities infrastructure with environmentally responsible and sustainable options?

I'm rather disappointed that given this situation the former two choices won out over the later.

Why pay taxes or give time and effort to support the system that consistently makes these decisions? There has to be a better way.

I know I know - all these bad choices haven't affected day to day life yet - though yet is the key word. Other countries have lived through rough financial times and come out the other side intact - but why with all the productivity/prosperity that is possible is a rough financial time even an option for this country.

-------------------

In that day to day life - http://www.skilletstreetfood.com/ - 3 people in an old Airstream trailer serving up decent lunch food in and around downtown Seattle - different location every day - many local ingredients (the berry crisp was great) and the food is well prepared overall (fried chicken was too greasy but still flavorful).

Also the local Greek Orthodox church is holding their fall festival this weekend - looking forward to the spanakopita.

Sunday, September 14, 2008

One of those 'Oh $#!^ moments

So - when is the most inconvenient time to drop a bottle of [RED] wine...

Well, when it is full, so that the splash effect/spillage is greatest...

How about when you're on a hard surface floor... like a kitchen floor...

Add in a large appliance - say, when you're putting it in the refrigerator...

And that adds up to quite the mess to clean up - wine and glass under the fridge, splashed inside the fridge, up on the wall - 750mL for paper towels to absorb...

Fun times.

At least it was only 3 buck chuck.

Thursday, September 4, 2008

Is it funny or sad or scary that this is a publicly stated point of view.

A few links to the same issue:

- http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/09/02/palins-church-may-have-sh_n_123205.html
- http://thinkprogress.org/2008/09/02/palin-iraq-god/
- http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080903/ap_on_el_pr/cvn_palin_iraq_war

We've just seen the effects of 8 years of ignorant/evangelistic leadership... is it a good idea to have someone like this behind a rather elderly presidential candidate?

Summer

Lack of posting has been due to the wonderful temperate August weather out here. It's been sunny and mid 70's for the last week or two - brilliant! Lots of walking around the city - headed to Mt. Rainier this weekend for some hiking/camping and to give the new camera a good workout.

Saturday, August 23, 2008

Weekend

Parents visited last weekend - quiet week since. Was rainy for a few days. Now it's brilliant again.

Looking forward to just walking around the city for a few hours after work... maybe get a cappuccino, sit on a bench and look at the mountains for a bit. Sounds like a fine way to spend an afternoon.

Thursday, August 14, 2008

Financial Nerd Time

Inflation... the current economic lightning rod of the media. People see oil/gas prices rising, food costs going up as a response, so on. However does this matter, and is this a bad thing?

First point - there are many definitions of inflation, and many different ways to calculate it. Are they referring to the expansion of the money supply (more dollars in circulation thus diluting the buying power of $1) or the change in prices of consumer goods (stuff costs more this year than last year) or one of the other measures (money supply including debt or wage inflation, so on)? What measure really matters to the individual?

It seems from the normal media that they are focusing on the consumer price index as a measure of inflation. ( Most recent numbers are here: http://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/cpi.pdf ) Basically - take a number of standard goods and compare prices month to month, year to year. This is commonly thought of as the price of a gallon of milk and loaf of bread measurement - what cost $5 last year now costs $6, thus there must be inflation.

However what if, over time, consumer prices go up but average wages do not. Say average wages were $10/hr and the milk/bread combo cost $5. Fast forward 5 years and assume the same job pays $12/hr but the milk/bread combo now costs $7. Wages have increased 20% but the prices of the standard consumer goods have increased 40%.

Will this person still buy the same gallon of milk and loaf of bread, or will they, over time, find those goods too expensive and just not buy them anymore? Should the prices drop to fit the wages, or should the wages rise to fit the prices?

It seems to me that wages are more the determining factor in inflation, and by all statistics I've seen, on average, in the US, wages have increased over the years, but at a rate no where close to the reported consumer price inflation levels. (Quick summary - over time nominal wages are up, real wages are down)

Over the last 5 years or so people have been able to offset this wage deflation by using debt - home equity and other cheap credit. However eventually it was realized that the actual money had to come from somewhere, and the banks and now the individuals that used debt are trying to figure out where to find some.

The answer for part of it is the federal government via taxpayers (or more accurately: debt to be repaid by future taxes) - thus the bailouts to various large financial institutions and generous lending terms to others. The homeowner assistance act and various economic stimulus checks were other tiny federal interventions in the overall market.

However statistically the actual money supply hasn't increased at a the same rate as the CPI either (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Money_supply#United_States) so this isn't where the money is coming from either. There's a lot of new debt, but that is being bought up by our trading partners (mostly as political goodwill it seems at this point, as demand for their products will drop due to these problems as well)

All signs are pointing to the recent price hikes as the main measure of inflation that is notably above normal... what if prices were to drop?

Would businesses that expanded to meet the illusory demand increases over the last decade lose money- yes, would some that expanded too far fail - yes. Would businesses that had more stable, longer term projections be affected - yes as their business has probably been better than average over the last few years, but they would not have nearly as bad a time returning to business as usual as the expansionary ones.

It seems to me that left alone the market will correct all of these recent debts/excesses on its own. All this government intervention is doing is drawing out the period of the correction (with the assumption that the negative effects will be less severe, fewer businesses will fail, etc... though this is a contentious point on economics blogs) and using lots of debt/future earnings of American citizens, to do so.

Is this inflationary... in the short term no, I think we're looking at deflation in the short term. In the long term... yes, the US has many debts it must pay back... but over what time period do they have to be paid back, and who will call them in and when?

Sunday, August 10, 2008

Quiet weekend.

Still on the Tues-Sat rotation - ran some errands last night - curry chicken/spinach/rice for dinner - fell asleep early - I'm old already.

Cloudy Sunday - probably going to walk around and check out some other apartments in the city - see if it's worth getting an older or smaller place to save a couple hundred a month. Probably not, but it's worth exploring at least. Good day for a cappuccino in any case.

Still undecided on what to do about advanced degrees, career options, where to go next. I just have this sense that I should do something, though what that is... no clue. As for schooling: business... it would be a good line on the resume, but as far as a path to interesting jobs... limited. More engineering... lots of work, perhaps some reward in this part of the country... and very hard to do part time. History... I read enough of it as it is... not sure where that would lead to other than writing about technical topics... which wouldn't be a bad side gig to computer nerding.

On the other hand... interesting side jobs... I'd need to find something that I both like to do, is a rather niche market (high margins) and is productive - i.e. - rebuilding old german car parts (suspension bits, alternators... could set up a webpage with order forms and all that stuff) - or making some kind of high margin food item to sell at a farmer's market on saturday mornings... not sure how to approach this yet, but there are some ideas floating around.

Monday, August 4, 2008

Vacationing

Tim and Stephanie visited this past week - so I took a few days off to tour guide/travel around the region some more. And get them addicted to Piroshki Piroshki.

Notes:

Hurricane Ridge - been there 3 times, it's been an entirely different place all 3 times. First time in April there was near 10 ft. of snow on the ground. Second time over the 4th of July there was moderate snow cover though patches of dry ground with small flowers. Latest time at the end of July there was grass and normal trail hiking and tons and tons of traffic.

The Hoh Rainforest - great place for an overnight camping trip - bit far for a day trip. Seems it would be better in winter/early spring as it would be greener - lots of the mosses were dormant presently. The Hoh river looked great at this time of year though - very light blue due to glacial meltwater.

Portland - still weird. The Japanese gardens were greener than earlier in the year - very tranquil place. Found a locally produced Absinthe - for better and for worse you can sample it along side a traditional French absinthe - it's perhaps smoother but more candy-tasting - less floral. And the necessary maple bacon donut. Since the original sampling I'm not ashamed to bring home-cooked bacon to our local donut shop and just buy a maple bar. It's that good of a combination.

Vancouver BC - still cloudy/rainy even in August - oh well, even more excuse to visit the art museum. Interesting exhibit on comics/manga/animation - not a culture I'm that familiar with outside of Pixar/Family Guy, but it explained some of the history behind the different media. At least it cleared up for the final day and a half - being able to walk around Stanley park on a clear day is worth the trip on its own.

A border crossing between WA and BC... what's the point? The roads change to km, but that's about it. Just holds up traffic... for an HOUR AND A HALF... state DMV offices are better run than this. really.

Back to the Tues-Sat work rotation. It's not bad - the Saturday calls reminded me of my previous job - rather ragged people having to implement changes on the weekend after working all week. Even if they're getting paid overtime it's not worth it. I'm really glad now to have two defined days off where I don't have to think about work at all. Even if it's Sunday/Monday - one day for errands, the other for relaxing... works out really well.

Headed into a quiet week and a half around the city before the parents fly out for a long weekend and a Prairie Home Companion show.

Thursday, July 17, 2008

Summer!

This past week has been absolutely brilliant in the city. Slightly warm at times (low to mid 80's last weekend - 70's all this week) but all days have been sunny with low humidity.

We did the tour-guide thing for Allison's dad and Susan last weekend - definitely too much walking for them, but I think they found at least a few things to like about the city, or specifically Bainbridge Island, which was more in line with their expectations I think.

I've been catching up on sleep this week - I think due to the extended daylight (sun doesn't set until 9:30) I was shorting myself - 10:30-5 wasn't cutting it. The catching-up on reading hasn't continued at as rapid a pace, but to keep up the productivity I did manage to fix the slightly rough idle (intermittent 200rpm drop in revs at idle... old spark plug) on the car with a quick 150k mile maintenance. It's now as smooth and silent as one would expect of a Mercedes.

Project for this weekend - take apart the free donor speakers and pick up some 1" thick hardwood to make the new cabinets.

One more week until the next visitors arrive and I get a bit of a vacation.

Thursday, July 10, 2008

Um, Thanks.

So this week we received the 'Economic Stimulus' check. And I promptly sent it to earn interest in a foreign owned bank. What part of the US economy will that stimulate? How many others did the same thing, either on principle or practical logic? (since US based banks are offering even worse interest rates presently) What was the government's aim in going through all the expense and trouble?

The answer, as far as I can tell, is to attempt to prevent a recession, per definition, though not per practical application.

Read this: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Recession

According to one widespread definition, a recession occurs when real growth is negative for two or more successive quarters of a year. However, there are differing definitions: In the United States, the National Bureau of Economic Research's (NBER) Business Cycle Dating Committee ultimately decides whether the economy has fallen into a recession. The NBER defines a recession as "a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in real GDP, real income, employment, industrial production and wholesale-retail sales."[1]

Essentially, the gamble is that by returning some taxpayer money, those taxpayers will use said money to make a few key economic (consumer activity based) indicators tick positive for one quarter this year (as most to all have been falling since fall of 2007 - the economics-nerd accepted start date of the current recession). Combine that with some political pressure on the NBER, and a recession and all the attendant doom-and-gloom media coverage could thus be avoided.

However practically can an extra say $1k on average per taxpaying family in the US matter, and does that 'fix' the problems with the economy that got us into this mess?

1) Debt? Apparently most people have some. (Yay for being an outlier here.) The smart money would use the $1k to pay down some debt to reduce the interest burden. Though $1k doesn't seem to even make a dent in the average US household's debt. How much is out there?

- On average, today's consumer has a total of 13 credit obligations on record at a credit bureau. These include credit cards (such as department store charge cards, gas cards, and bank cards) and installment loans (auto loans, mortgage loans, student loans, etc.). Not included are savings and checking accounts (typically not reported to a credit bureau). Of these 13 credit obligations, nine are likely to be credit cards and four are likely to be installment loans (Source: myfico.com).

- Fifty-one percent of the U.S. population has at least two credit cards (Source: Center for Media Research).

For credit cards:

- 29% of households owe $1,000 or more on their cards.
- 21% owe $2,000 or more.
- 6% owe $8,000 or more.
- 4% owe $10,500 or more.
- 1% owe $21,400 or more.

Summary: paying down debt won't do much to stimulate the economy, and even $1k per household is basically just buying time via interest (should this have been the bank stimulus plan?) rather than improving the overall picture.

References: http://moneycentral.msn.com/content/Banking/creditcardsmarts/P74808.asp , http://www.creditcards.com/credit-card-news/credit-card-industry-facts-personal-debt-statistics-1276.php

2) Consumer goods? How many people that get ~$1k back from last year's tax payments will spend it on a new tv/stereo/his and hers iphones, or other non-essential consumer goods? Would it be a sign of an improving economy or a rather sick one that people would think of these checks as 'free money' and treat it accordingly.

3) ? ... I may be missing something, but I wonder if there will be statistics collected on how this money is actually used.

4) Doesn't this country have massive national debt that it needs to pay down and if so why is it giving money back to taxpayers?!

The senate voting record on this mess is here: http://senate.gov/legislative/LIS/roll_call_lists/roll_call_vote_cfm.cfm?congress=110&session=2&vote=00010

And the house voting record is here: http://www.govtrack.us/congress/vote.xpd?vote=h2008-25

There seems to be an echo in here...

To spread the public record of this vote:

http://senate.gov/legislative/LIS/roll_call_lists/roll_call_vote_cfm.cfm?congress=110&session=2&vote=00168

For anyone that cares for the rule of law, recognize the Yea column and use that as a template of who to vote out of office next time around.

Wednesday, July 2, 2008

Not an elegant solution, but we back!

http://maslows.net:12110/

If the ISP blocks incoming port 80, I offer up port 12110. Took me ah 6 months, but the site is back online. Sadly, yes, via IIS.

Design and content update to come soon.

Monday, June 30, 2008

On reference from runswithcarrots. Whether these are actually all important books or if this is a statistic needing more data, I'll add another data point. I could name another 50 books that should be read by everyone that understands the English language, but alas.

Total Read from the list: 23

The Big Read is an NEA program designed to encourage community reading initiatives. They've come up with this list of the top 100 books, using criteria they don't explain, and they estimate that the average adult has only read 6 of these. So, we are encouraged to:

1) Look at the list and bold those we have read.
2) Italicize those we intend to read.
3) Underline the books we LOVE
4) Reprint this list in our own blogs

1 Pride and Prejudice - Jane Austen
2 The Lord of the Rings - JRR Tolkien
3 Jane Eyre - Charlotte Bronte
4 Harry Potter series - JK Rowling
5 To Kill a Mockingbird - Harper Lee
6 The Bible
7 Wuthering Heights - Emily Bronte
8 Nineteen Eighty Four - George Orwell
9 His Dark Materials - Philip Pullman
10 Great Expectations - Charles Dickens
11 Little Women - Louisa M Alcott
12 Tess of the D'Urbervilles - Thomas Hardy
13 Catch 22 - Joseph Heller
14 Complete Works of Shakespeare
15 Rebecca - Daphne Du Maurier
16 The Hobbit - JRR Tolkien
17 Birdsong - Sebastian Faulks
18 Catcher in the Rye - JD Salinger
19 The Time Traveler's Wife - Audrey Niffenegger
20 Middlemarch - George Eliot
21 Gone With The Wind - Margaret Mitchell
22 The Great Gatsby - F Scott Fitzgerald
23 Bleak House - Charles Dickens
24 War and Peace - Leo Tolstoy
25 The Hitch Hiker's Guide to the Galaxy - Douglas Adams
26 Brideshead Revisited - Evelyn Waugh
27 Crime and Punishment - Fyodor Dostoyevsky
28 Grapes of Wrath - John Steinbeck
29 Alice in Wonderland - Lewis Carroll
30 The Wind in the Willows - Kenneth Grahame
31 Anna Karenina - Leo Tolstoy
32 David Copperfield - Charles Dickens
33 Chronicles of Narnia - CS Lewis
34 Emma - Jane Austen
35 Persuasion - Jane Austen
36 The Lion, The Witch and The Wardrobe - CS Lewis
37 The Kite Runner - Khaled Hosseini
38 Captain Corelli's Mandolin - Louis De Bernieres
39 Memoirs of a Geisha - Arthur Golden
40 Winnie the Pooh - AA Milne
41 Animal Farm - George Orwell

42 The Da Vinci Code - Dan Brown
43 One Hundred Years of Solitude - Gabriel Garcia Marquez
44 A Prayer for Owen Meaney - John Irving
45 The Woman in White - Wilkie Collins
46 Anne of Green Gables - LM Montgomery
47 Far From The Madding Crowd - Thomas Hardy
48 The Handmaid's Tale - Margaret Atwood
49 Lord of the Flies - William Golding
50 Atonement - Ian McEwan
51 Life of Pi - Yann Martel
52 Dune - Frank Herbert
53 Cold Comfort Farm - Stella Gibbons
54 Sense and Sensibility - Jane Austen
55 A Suitable Boy - Vikram Seth
56 The Shadow of the Wind - Carlos Ruiz Zafon
57 A Tale Of Two Cities - Charles Dickens
58 Brave New World - Aldous Huxley
59 The Curious Incident of the Dog in the Night-time - Mark Haddon
60 Love In The Time Of Cholera - Gabriel Garcia Marquez
61 Of Mice and Men - John Steinbeck
62 Lolita - Vladimir Nabokov
63 The Secret History - Donna Tartt
64 The Lovely Bones - Alice Sebold
65 Count of Monte Cristo - Alexandre Dumas
66 On The Road - Jack Kerouac

67 Jude the Obscure - Thomas Hardy
68 Bridget Jones's Diary - Helen Fielding
69 Midnight's Children - Salman Rushdie
70 Moby Dick - Herman Melville
71 Oliver Twist - Charles Dickens
72 Dracula - Bram Stoker
73 The Secret Garden - Frances Hodgson Burnett
74 Notes From A Small Island - Bill Bryson
75 Ulysses - James Joyce
76 The Bell Jar - Sylvia Plath
77 Swallows and Amazons - Arthur Ransome
78 Germinal - Emile Zola
79 Vanity Fair - William Makepeace Thackeray
80 Possession - AS Byatt
81 A Christmas Carol - Charles Dickens
82 Cloud Atlas - David Mitchell
83 The Color Purple - Alice Walker
84 The Remains of the Day - Kazuo Ishiguro
85 Madame Bovary - Gustave Flaubert
86 A Fine Balance - Rohinton Mistry
87 Charlotte's Web - EB White
88 The Five People You Meet In Heaven - Mitch Albom
89 Adventures of Sherlock Holmes - Sir Arthur Conan Doyle
90 The Faraway Tree Collection - Enid Blyton
91 Heart of Darkness - Joseph Conrad
92 The Little Prince - Antoine De Saint-Exupery
93 The Wasp Factory - Iain Banks
94 Watership Down - Richard Adams
95 A Confederacy of Dunces - John Kennedy Toole
96 A Town Like Alice - Nevil Shute
97 The Three Musketeers - Alexandre Dumas
98 Hamlet - William Shakespeare

99 Charlie and the Chocolate Factory - Roald Dahl
100 Les Miserables - Victor Hugo

Wednesday, June 25, 2008

Hobbies / Reading

The professional/ambitious side of my life encountered a minor delay last week - I'm currently waitlisted for the U-Wash MBA program. If it works out I'd welcome the opportunity to make progress toward the degree. If it doesn't, well, I understand I'm young and without much in the way of managerial experience presently, so I'll try again in the future.

In the mean time, having a strictly 40hr/wk job with no on-call has left me with lots of free time during the week nights.

Since the move I've cleared out 90% of the old computer parts I had laying around, filtered thousands of old baseball/basketball cards for any of value and discarded the commons, filtered the 'assorted stuff' boxes - result - two fewer rubbermaid bins full of stuff than previously. I've also ripped all my CD's to properly ID3 tagged MP3's and sold a few that I knew I'd never listen to again. And cleared some old clothes out of the closet. I'm not done yet, but it's a necessary start.

After all that, it was time to read. Between 'A Fine Balance' (recommended by family) and 'Atlas Shrugged' (just never got around to it before, even though I knew it would resonate with me) it hasn't been light reading to say the least, but necessary.

Next up - we'll have a decent number of friends and family visting Seattle over the next couple months, so I won't have as much free time as previously, but I'm still thinking ahead to what to do with my off-work-hours time during the week.

What kinds of projects I could take up in the absence of school...

-I've thought about rebuilding an(other) old car - early Porsche 911's interest me from an engineering perspective, even if they do have a cult following that keeps prices high-ish.

-I'd like to make something. This is hard to do in a 700sqft apt.
- Herbs are growing, slowly. The harvest at the end of May was generous though. The oregano turned into a week's worth of pasta sauce, the thyme worked well on fresh fish over a few meals.
- I'd like to make a bookcase from lumber instead of buying Ikea next time. It's all right angles. Easy enough it seems.
- The other thing that interests me, along similar lines, is making speakers - not the specific drivers, as I can't produce magnets, but the pairing of drivers (which are cheap) to real wood enclosures. Buying complete real wood speakers is rather expensive.

On the non-productive diversion side I've thought about possibly finding a sporting club to be part of - possibly soccer, possibly sailing - unsure, though I think I'll probably veto both on the grounds of 'I could be doing something productive with this time'

That's all for now. Back to work here.

Sunday, June 15, 2008

One lap of the Olympics

Photos will be posted to Facebook in due course.

Saturday morning - breakfast at home - then we caught the 8:45 ferry to Bainbridge. Kinda cloudy day, but warmer. Drove the boring hour or so to Port Angeles under increasingly sunny skies.

Good chocolate shake and fries from some small drive-in in Port Angeles - looking up at the mountains under a mostly clear sky.

Lake Crescent was iridescently blue - very clear water - want to spend some more time here next trip. Love the road along the edge of the lake - scenic and fun.

As we crossed the logging-lands between the lake and the rainforest there were many near-deserted twisty sections of asphalt- speed limit - 55, actual speed - occasionally higher.

Arrived at the Hoh rainforest in time for a late lunch. No rain in sight. Picnic lunch near the visitor's center - then wandered the 3ish miles of loop trails around there. Took many pictures of mossy trees and streams and such.

Realized we had lots of time left in the day - drove back up the road, then out to Rialto beach on the Pacific coast. Wandered around the driftwood and smooth-pebbled beach for an hour or so. Bright sunshine - great scenery.

Back to the campsite (just a few feet from the Hoh River). Dinner of curry-lentils and rice at the campsite. Good Australian Zinfandel. Stayed up to watch the fire die at about 9:30 - fell asleep minutes after that.

Woke up about 7 - clear and cool morning - disassembled camp and out by 8:45. Stopped at one of the inlet-beaches along the Pacific coast highway - took pics, but felt lazy and didn't walk down the cliff to the water.

Incrediby rapid drive south along the PCH. The 14 year old Merc got a good workout on the miles-long straightaways followed by sweeping foothills roads. For an old car with near 150,000 miles it can still run... fast.

Lunch at the Olympia farmer's market. Locally made Bratwust and Kielbasa - tasty! Picked up some morels and portobello and local onions for dinner.

Back home in time to pressure-wash the car and then wax it. Still sunny here in the city. Good weekend.

Friday, June 13, 2008

Weekend!

The sun finally found Seattle yesterday. It has been a while, but it looks like the rainy season finally may be ending. Allison and I made use of this event by going for a walk and while walking, out to dinner (yes, there was a birthday involved as well) to a small bistro place on top of Queen Anne hill. It was casual and nice. We did a very usual thing and split a hamburger (local beef piled with fresh local mushrooms - morel and portobello) and salad (mango/pepper). She also made a sacher torte, which we ate too much of upon returning home.

The general idea for the weekend is to go hiking/camping over in the Hoh rainforest (yes, I understand the disparity here - taking a sunny weekend to go to a rainforest) as well as along the Pacific Ocean coast, as there are many supposedly scenic trails over there. If there is scenery pictures will be taken to record the event.

The interview process for the MBA program was mixed - didn't get a sense of exactly what they were looking for - so we'll see what happens in a week or two when the decision letters are mailed out. If it works out, great, I'd like to finish the degree. If not, computer nerding seems to be a fine way to pass the time, though I may need to find a hobby, or at least another old Porsche to rebuild.

Thanks to all who called/left birthday messages!

Monday, June 9, 2008

Too much thought went into this:

After 6 months of daily use, the soap tray in the bathroom took a flying death leap. It fulfilled the design criteria of preventing mushy soap, however I expect better durability from a soap tray, especially one designed by OXO. (the suction cup split from the tray part)

http://www.organizeit.com/pooxosoapdish.asp

Normally this would not be news, however being cheap and incredibly nerdy I have not yet bought another one due to

1) Waiting on one of the Bed Bath Beyond 20% off one item coupons (since arrived)
and
2) Wondering what design criteria would make a better soap dish, and if such a thing exists.

This is where I make rather odd use of the internet.

I wonder how many daily Google searches there are for 'best soap tray design'

According to the results there are 170,000 related pages. However none seem to be related to either 1) making your own or 2) soap tray functionality and durability reviews.

It appears the weak point of suction cup designs are the cups themselves, so those are out.

Hanging from shower head devices are promising, though bulky and generally more expensive than trays.

Trays are cheap and generally indestructible, but edge-of-tub space is limited.

I know it really doesn't matter, but sometimes the engineering mind takes over.

Thursday, June 5, 2008

Observations

Well, it was good to go back to NC for a week - visiting with friends and family was nice - granted everyone's dispersed pretty far and wide already - so it isn't specifically an NC thing, but good to visit with those that are there - glad to be back in Seattle though.

The modernist barn has been thoroughly updated by its new owners - was kinda shocked when I drove by - there are windows in the front of the house now, and two new decks off the back. Not sure I agree with the light tan paint color, but overall they've done a lot in a short period of time.

Things I miss about Raleigh/Charlotte:
- NeoMonde
- Red Oak
- Chopped Pork BBQ

Things I don't miss:
- Humidity
- Humidity combined with heat
- Driving as a means of traversing a city.

In any case - it's shaping up to be a busy summer - lots of visitors - lots of places to go, sights to see.

Friday, May 16, 2008

Excessively Expensive Food, Seattle Style

Random first note - it is a spectacularly beautiful day here. Sunrise on the Olympics, and helping some tourists find Pike Place market - good morning.

As our Christmas present, my parents gave Allison and me a gift certificate to the Herb Farm. One menu each night, multicourse fixed price, wine pairings, the works. Their menus are only grouped by the major fresh-ingredient seasons of the region, so when we saw salmon we felt that one was worth waiting for.

The general history of the place is that a couple inherited their parents herb farm which was on some land outside of Redmond. They started offering cooking classes and some small attempts at a restaurant in that location. After their initial restaurant burned down they sold the land (probably for a nice sum given the location), bought a smaller plot of land and small building near the Woodinville wineries, and went about building their vision for what a nice northwestern restaurant should be. The owners take the diners on a tour of the gardens, pick pieces of the herbs they're using that night, describe generally how they're used in the dishes. It's kinda an upscale hippie approach to fine dining. They reinforce the local-food philosophy and how everything is either from their gardens, the farms just down the road, or the Pacific Ocean. This includes the wine - the furthest one traveled was from Oregon. I agree with the approach.

Unlike other high end restaurants that I've experienced, the chef and sommelier give a presentation on the ingredients, techniques and wines before the dinner. It is a much more personalized experience - you get to know a bit about everyone that's cooking for you - interesting approach.

However this is a restaurant, not a cooking school. On to the food. No, not all 9 courses included salmon. Some were very simple (one prawn - tail part was butterflied with an herb butter, the head part was fried) and some were complex (3 rabbit and herb gnocchi over stewed beet slices). For the 3 salmon preparations they approached fish in a way I agree with. Cook it as little as possible with as few seasonings as possible. (Sashimi cut with chive, ceviche with a house made lemon scented oil, seared fillet with reduced pinot noir as a light sauce)

It wasn't as overwhelming as the concept may sound. Each of the 9 courses were small - just 3-4 bites at most. Still a large meal, but not any more filling than a trip to the Penguin.

Neat Idea:
- Put a fragrant herb leaf (lemon verbena) in a glass of sparkling wine. The bubbles will smell like the herb.

A bit too self-aware take on a French Laundry creation:
- carrot sorbet cannelle in a cardamom dill 'ice cream cone' with sprig of lemon balm
(the carrot sorbet was even the same color as the salmon cannelle...)

Monday, May 12, 2008

Summary Time

Given the whole house experiment over the last couple years, and the move, and business school, and well, reading more economics nerd stuff, I've found this housing-as-an-investment boom/bust rather interesting.

In the consumer media (cnn, etc) there are typically only glossy stories when companies have failed or when someone is crying about losing their house, rather than the larger trends and reasons why things are like they are.

Enter NPR.

Listen to this show: http://www.thislife.org/Radio_Episode.aspx?episode=355

Yes, the This American Life presentation model of making ordinary life somewhat more dramatic is still there, but it is still a good concise summary of why the US is in a recession and why it's a larger problem than just some regional banks running short of cash.

There were no informed guesses as to the short term economic future made on the program, and probably for the better. It's still early in the process. No one really knows how it will shake out.

Monday, May 5, 2008

Quieter weekend

No concerts or road trips - just a generally quiet weekend in the city - went to a new restaurant (Boom Noodle) where they have okonmiyaki and generally good and interesting noodle combinations.

Sunday was perfect weather - sunny and 60's. So we just walked around a lot. Brought bacon to the local donut shop (Top Pot) that makes good maple donuts to re-create the Maple Bacon Bar from Voodoo Donuts. Then walked to pick up groceries up at the top of Queen Anne hill - just to see the views.

In consumer news - the single speed bike experiment begins. Swapped the old Trek mtn bike for a single speed Marin. I've read a lot about the whole simplification idea and seen tons of them in the city here. Which is surprising because there are well, hills. However the initial test rides seem to show that geared right it can work and be very relaxing. You're just cruising at a fair speed - about 10mph, which is enough for city traffic. Hills don't seem to be an issue, and I took it up some pretty steep grades already. It's all about using the right tool for the job it seems, and in the city, one gear about covers it. For long rides, if I were to ever want to do that, it would be sub-optimal, but I see the bike as in city transportation now, not as a weekend workout plan.

Also - swapped both older watches in favor of a shiny new Seiko automatic (SARB029). Yes, I had to be slightly different and order a model you can't get here directly from Japan. It's kinda interesting that mail from Japan is quicker to arrive than mail from NC out here. In any case - the Seiko should be far more livable than the Poljot - automatic winding, far more precise build quality - hopefully more durable too. Looked at the Tag Heuer and Omega Seamaster again, but they're 3x or more the price of the Seiko for about the same precision. Japan wins this one.

This week - ah, it's still Bike to Work month! Time to continue that trend.

Saturday, April 19, 2008

Networking

Does anyone know anyone that would want a size 48R black (with nice fabric weave) double breasted suit - free plus cost of mail?

It is in excellent shape - I'm just too small for it now. (Down 2 suit sizes in as many years)

Leave a message if interested. Thanks!

Friday, April 18, 2008

Seattle - Healthiest City in the USA

So, I finally found a good gyro within walking distance of my office (or the apartment) - fresh veggies, a no-too-runny cucumber/yogurt sauce.

However there are 1.4 miles and 450 feet of vertical elevation gain to get to it.

Seattle - regularly listed in the healthiest cities in the USA - perhaps not entirely for the diet of its residents, but that it makes them work out to get to the good food.

In other news - Lotus was in town on Wednesday - good show - some new experimental stuff (some more polished than others) as well as at least one from Germination, which is the first time I'd heard anything from that album across ah 5 concerts of theirs now.

This weekend will undoubtedly be less of an adventure than last, probably wandering the city looking for real ramen.

Tuesday, April 15, 2008

Weekends

Last weekend Allison and I got out of town for the first time in a while.

A fair percentage of the bulb-based flowers in the US are grown about an hour north of Seattle in the Skagit Valley. Vast fields of daffodils, and then tulips, bloom here every spring.

It looks kinda like this: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Skagit_Valley_1.JPG

Except we got there before the tulips bloomed, so there were a few vast fields of yellow daffodils, then lots of green soon-to-be-tulips. Pretty, but not as spectacular as the billing. (yet)

At which point we drove over to Whidbey Island and took a ferry over to the Olympic peninsula. After a quick lunch in Port Angeles we drove up to Hurricane Ridge.

Basically, it's the Alps, in North America - nice winding road, no guardrail, 5500 ft up in the mountains - huge views out over the valley to the mountains. The view from the top definitely lives up to the expectations. It is probably the most spectacular place in the US. (HW1 in Big Sur comes close - and there are restaurants there so you can sit and drink wine and enjoy the view for hours - possibly better for that reason)

Pics are here: http://www.facebook.com/album.php?aid=2134065&l=97ea7&id=36620541

Took a more southerly ferry back to Seattle in time for dinner. Not a bad day at all.

Sunday we were back under the clouds - time to catch up on nerdiness - played Crysis some - it's the best approximation yet of a first person action movie - not much in the way of story, but fun - big explosions, so on.

Portal on the other hand is better in my opinion - good sense of humor, smart puzzles - interesting.

This weekend - depends on the weather - lots of parks to explore.

Nick's Tip of the Week: never use the front brake on a mountain bike going down a really steep hill. It can result in a spectacular incident. Requiring band-aids.

Saturday, March 29, 2008

A Day in the Life

First thing - it's been nearly a year since the wedding. The life situation for Allison and I has changed somewhat in that year - new jobs, new cities, we're still exploring and having fun.

It was overall a typical weekend day - shops and market in the morning... split a piroshky (cinnamon cardamom raisin) and the just-out-of-the-fryer tiny cinnamon donuts at the Daily Dozen... pick up some fresh veggies and fruit for the week... back home for lunch.

Walked around the Seattle Center and walked a few errands (new camping 3L pot and sporks at REI) in the afternoon... then cooked dinner.

Mushroom ravioli with a browned butter/thyme/vegetable/reggiano parmesan in a vegetable stock sauce. Side of broiled asparagus. This was one of the simpler/better dinners I've cooked lately.

Allison made a strawberry granita for dessert, and we split a bottle of Pommery champagne.

All in all - good day, good food, time to fall asleep watching a movie.

Wednesday, March 26, 2008

Updates

Well, my mom is recovering - the first week after surgery is pretty dicey though - lots of monitoring for brain swelling and small strokes and such - signs are pointing to a full recovery - at least she's able to get up and walk around a bit already - and she sounds normal enough - moreso than after the back surgery last year.

In other, more upbeat news - due to lack of seating here I bought a Sumo Omni - freakin huge (5' square) pillow/urban lounge bean bag thingy - it arrived yesterday and I immediately proceeded to fall asleep in it - good sign.

It's comfy, and foldable and feels durable enough. Priced cheaper than more traditional, less comfortable seating too.

Link http://www.sumolounge.com/omni.shtml

Also - for the musically inclined - Helio Sequence - Keep Your Eyes Ahead - still thinking it's the best album I've found in a while.

Friday, March 21, 2008

Yikes

The Bad - my mom's in the hospital with a brain aneurism.

The Good - she's generally fine - it's minor and operable - should be back to normal in a month.

Operation to fix it is tomorrow morning - think positive.

Thursday, March 20, 2008

Better answer:

After trying to think through the current economic situation and well, not knowing enough - here is someone that fills in the gaps - good article, not too technical.

http://www.annsjournal.sampasite.com/Wall-Street-s-House-of-Cards.htm

Thursday, March 13, 2008

Economics

As someone that just made a financially risky move - left large corporation for small corporation 3000 miles away, downsized materially - sold a house, car, lots of furniture and stuff, I'm wondering what the ramifications of that are. I seem to be doing alright - but what does the future hold economically - is buying a residence with the proceeds from the last one a smart decision right now - what about going back to school, how will the job market fare - these are rather expensive questions to ask.

For all the reasons given in the news for why the US economy is in trouble, here is my attempt (as someone who has er, just over a year of business class experience) at summarizing what's happening. I may miss things, but hope to explain the basics somewhat correctly.

- The home value question.
Are home prices simply supply vs. demand?
This seems to be a local issue and not a national one - if the economy in a city is strong then it is a desirable place to live and home values will be higher than an economically depressed city (i.e. Detroit). However there seem to be national forces at work here as well: value of the dollar and the availability of credit. Basically - where does the money come from for people to mortgage a home, and how much is that money worth.

Mortgage market problems - what's the deal?
Pretty much anyone that buys a home does so with a mortgage. So the bank gives you money to buy a house, and expects that you'll pay it back with interest over some period of time. Assume you have a fixed rate mortgage at 6% - the bank then generally knows what payment to expect and when it will receive it. This is pretty predictable. (mortgage prepayments and defaults being the risk, however the riskiness is tied to how much interest they charge to make it worth their risk)

The issue at work here is where does the money come from that the bank loans you. People deposit money in savings accounts or CD's - so the bank pays them say 3% for their reduced liquidity and then loan that money out to other people at 6% (even if after some of those loans are paid down early or default the bank only gets 5% on average) - yay profit. Sounds nice and simple however it's a bit more complicated than that.

The loans that the bank creates can then be bundled and traded as mortgage backed securities - basically banks bet between themselves and other trading houses on how much of the full value+interest of the loan portfolio they'll get back based on the riskiness of the group of mortgages - 30 year fixed conforming loans are low risk, something like a 3 year ARM is on the risky side.

If the economy slows down people may choose not to buy a house or may be laid off and not be able to pay their mortgage. The result of that is lowered values on those mortgage backed securities. If the properties are foreclosed on, the end result of the bank sale may be far less than the value of the loan. Each individual loss may average under $100k, but after a few thousand, or few million, of those small losses it adds up to a fairly large loss of value. The holders of those securities may find themselves in need of lots of cash to cover the difference. Recently Countrywide, Carlyle Capital, and a few others, are companies that forgot that there had to be sufficient cash to cover that possibility and ran into trouble.

Also involved in the 'where the money comes from' is the Fed, and the value of the dollar. But it's quitting time.

More thoughts to follow...

Tuesday, March 11, 2008

Updates

Had some visitors over the weekend - Tim, Sarah and John were in town before Tim ships out to various ports around the world. So Allison and I put together a standard weekend in the city for them - beer, more beer, and lots of walking around to see the sights. Went well - dinner at Etta's was good - well executed fresh seafood - if less experimental than the other restaurants in that family.

This week/weekend should be quieter - need to finish up taxes and grad school prep stuff.

In other news - I'm finally mostly stable under 200lbs. Granted 198/9 isn't much different statistically from 202/3, but it's a trend in the correct direction. There's something to this fresh food and lots of walking lifestyle after all.

Wednesday, February 27, 2008

More concert

Bela Fleck, the Flecktones and the Seattle Symphony

Great show - very smart music.

Also - it's like NPR's audience was all in one place at the same time. Very eclectic mix of people.

Tuesday, February 26, 2008

Travels

Interesting notes from the weekend - first weekend completely out of town since the move.

- Washington has a pretty if quiet state capitol (Olympia) - the requisite large stone building surrounded by a large city park - neat main street with small coffee shops.

- Dancing Goats coffee gives away the burlap coffee bags in which their beans arrive in exchange for a $1 donation to a local childrens' charity - we thought that was neat and now have a huge burlap sack - will be useful for protecting the trunk of the car when carrying home potting soil and such this weekend.

- Portland is a neat place - same general northwest-y character as Seattle - very eco-conscious, walkable, pro independent business, pro local food - just on what feels to be about half the scale of Seattle. It also is much cleaner and better organized for the difference in scale. Also - their Pearl District is a great example of new urbanist planning and execution in the US. Not only for the design but the fact that it's all about the same age, less than 10 years old in this case - props to their urban planning department for being able to completely level and redevelop a whole city (warehouse) district in such a short time. For that reason though it looks very similar to the post WW2 districts in Germany - 6-10 story flats with shops at street level. Hopefully it ages as well as those have. My current neighborhood in Seattle could learn a lot from their example.

- Gosser beer - find it at Clyde Common in downtown Portland - only place I've yet found it. It's one of the major Austrian brews. Tasty.

- Best recent music find - Helio Sequence - Keep Your Eyes Ahead album - interesting sound, and surprisingly upbeat for music from this region.

Tuesday, February 19, 2008

Next up... ???

House closed today.

The earnings are enough for a down payment on an in-the-city place here, though given the economy presently I'm going to wait a bit and see what happens.


Quick estimate using nice round numbers.
Purchase price -170,000
Home Improvements -10,000
Interest Paid -20,000
Tax Benefits +14,000
Sale Price -Fees +203,700

Total Earnings +17,700 over 1.75 years
Earnings Per Year +10114
Approx Percent ROI +5.95

Over most of the period of home ownership, my 401k was earning a similar percentage, and even the HSBC online savings account was over 5%, so the earnings on a single family home in one of the most-positive real estate markets in the country were better, but not exceptionally so, than traditional investments.

Next up - more detailed numbers and how it would have compared to renting.

Monday, February 18, 2008

Weekend

It was a nice, sunny weekend out here. We spent Saturday driving the length of Lake Washington, stopping at a few of the parks along the way to wander and see the sights.

Sunday we hit the markets and came home with a lot of vegetables, then went to check out a small sailboat - sailing is apparently the weekend thing to do around here when the weather is decent. And, like my car decision last fall, if used only occasionally, the two options are rent, or buy cheap. I took the cheap car route, and probably will pick up a cheap boat as well.

The house closing is on Tuesday - still no decision on the market here. It looks stable enough that purchasing might not be a bad idea, but I should probably give it 6 months and see what sells during the prime part of the year, and what doesn't.

Well, time to start the day here.

Friday, February 8, 2008

General Update

1) House is under contract and the closing date of the 21st is fast approaching. Everything looks good thus far.

2) What to do with the cash... short term is obviously an online savings account, but given the fractional at best appreciation from real estate, is buying another place the best solution right now?

Two ways of thinking here: looking at the economy, inflation is coming, odds are sooner rather than later, and having a fixed rate, fixed amount, mortgage is an interesting way of benefiting from inflation.

The other way of thinking is to rent for 2 years while getting a degree and saving money enough to make a larger leap then. Interest rates will have to rise to control inflation... it is a bit more of a gamble having a fair amount of cash in that situation, even if it is invested safely.

Currently in the city rent+parking on ~750ft^2 is ~$1500/mo. To buy an equivalent size and location place with 20% down the mortgage + taxes will be ~$2000/mo with another $300-400/mo for condo dues. That is a massive difference that currently negates any tax benefits to owning.

I'd like to say - oh, I'll be taking classes that teach me how to turn this into a win win situation - but one thing that I have already learned from business classes is that predicting the response of the economy does not tend to give accurate results.

3) Seattle - still cool. The winters here are quite grey. It's already February, so that should be improving soon enough. At least there's still a lot of green - few trees lose their leaves it seems.

4) The mushroom selection and quality at Uwajimaya is awesome. From spicy Honshimeji to really meaty Shiitake it's no wonder I wasn't that into mushrooms in NC - even the Fresh Market ones were already dried up and well, stale.

5) Apparently the far out suburbs and mountains are getting a lot of snow this winter - haven't seen any of that apart from some flurries in the city. People complain about traffic or the weather... it is really nice not having to deal with any of that anymore. Just throw on a jacket and within a mile anything's available. Tons of food of any nationality in both grocery and restaurant form, live music, shopping (bargain and nice), books, movies. Seems like the ideal way to live imo.

6) The job has been busy lately, but I seem to be staying afloat - this is good. And not working weekends anymore is a great change. Falling asleep at 9PM is kinda weak, but getting adjusted to the early schedule will pay dividends once classes begin in the fall. (UW evening MBA program is my aim at this point - going through the application presently)

Saturday, February 2, 2008

Experience #2

iTunes movie rental - downloaded 1.5GB (2hr) movie in 65 min. And that was for a generally new release (Ocean's 13 - better than 12 - bit campy as usual, but entertaining). Not bad!

So, from someone that hadn't rented/gone to a movie in ah 5 months, I've now rented 2 in the past month. Apple has thus succeeded in capturing the lazy movie watcher demographic.

Thursday, January 31, 2008

w00t

The house is under contract. Closing date of Feb 20-something. At which point NC is entirely in the past.

Monday, January 28, 2008

From the 'It's about time' files:

I think the house has sold (counteroffer accepted). I should be getting paperwork tomorrow that finalizes this.

It was a learning experience if anything. And I'll be sure to post a full financial analysis including tax benefits, to assess the annual rate of return and see if I would have been better off just putting the money in mutual funds, once I get the final check after closing. Initial estimates only point to a 7% per year gain... we'll see how right that is.

Friday, January 25, 2008

Week of Sun

No rain for a week, few clouds even. Sun, mid 40's temps - this is nice.

Went to the UW MBA open house last night... between that and a really expensive program that I previewed earlier I'm thinking more about where to go, career wise. There's a diverging path here - one is to go all out and have a 'prestigious' degree and then get back into a more corporate job, for better (easy to play the games) and for worse (longer hours and more stress initially). The other would be to use the flexibility in my current job schedule to get a more normal degree and then make an evolutionary step.

This led to the 5+ year out thoughts. In the near term 1-3 years, Seattle is a fine place to be. I like the current job and seem to be progressing fairly well through it. The UW option is a convenient and affordable MBA at a very good school.

Anything after the 2010 or 2011 conclusion of school is too far out of consider... where do I want to be then, what should I be doing then... no clue.

Just need to prepare myself to have options then I guess.

Sunday, January 20, 2008

The future.

iTunes movie rental - props to Apple for putting together an easy to use, cheaper than physical rental service that actually works. And it works really well. Especially with the mac mini outputting to a nice TV and speakers.

While Allison and I haven't watched many movies lately due to a variety of factors, this service will probably change that. See a movie, click, $4 is charged to your debit card, and the movie downloads. Easy.

While it took a couple hours to download, that may have been partly due to it being a new, popular release (the Simpson's movie) - I'll have to try it on an older, less busy, release.

After the movie downloads you have 30 days to start playing the movie, and once you start playing the movie you have access to the file for 24 hours, which is fine by me.

DVD rentals are old-skool now.

Saturday, January 19, 2008

er

sound tribe sector nine - an auditory experience beyond your imagination.

summary - show rocked the house. great venue, great band.

Friday, January 18, 2008

Weekend

Sound Tribe Sector 9 concert tonight. That should rock. As long as I hit the caffeine beforehand I'll be awake to see it.

Probably going to explore another coastal park or two this weekend, see what the northern suburbs have to offer.

Packers game on Sunday - they actually still have a chance at making the Super Bowl this year - not bad.

Sunday, January 13, 2008

Sun!

When it's nice here, it's really freakin nice here. Sunny and 50 degrees. Picked up some good seasonal root veggies at Pike Pl. Market, walked down to Uwajimaya for lunch and some other groceries, then back to the apartment with a half hour before sunset - quick drive over to Alki beach to watch the sun set over the mountains. Here's the view from West Seattle looking back toward home/downtown (our apt. is in the building immediately above the bow anchor on the IHC Pool ship.)


Friday, January 4, 2008

Looking back

While booking appointments to check out a couple MBA schools in the coming weeks, I had a few moments of doubt as to why I moved away in the middle of school, in the middle of updating a cool old house... it seems like a lot of effort, not wasted, but perhaps under appreciated.

At which point I went back and read the urban planet Charlotte forums to see what was going on there - the light rail is apparently popular and working well - downtown is still generally growing even with all the news of the housing troubles. It seems like if I would have been able to find a less annoying job Charlotte wouldn't have been that bad, and in the quest to fix that I kinda took a bit of an extreme position and left it all behind. I could be taking the light rail to work as I envisioned, I could have completed the renovations of the house as I envisioned, life would have been more 'settled' than it is now.

I guess I still have loose ends that need to be taken care of. It will be better once the house sells and I actually feel like I'm making the money I'm earning here, rather than just covering rent/mortgage/bills. The other step will be finishing up the degree.

Tech jobs can be nice ways to make a living, but I need to keep working for the next step. And either MBA option available here is a better school than where I was, so that will be good.

I think I've generally been on the right track, but a bit too ambitious for my own good, these last couple years... there hasn't been a lot of time to realize what makes for a good life. There's just this lingering feeling that I can't become complacent, still need to be working/advancing/learning/growing.

These last couple months have been odd to me - there has been free time... I've walked for hours with no real destination other than to see what's around... Allison and I have been able to go to new restaurants, wander new markets, cook more. I guess I just haven't accepted that this is all there is yet. Even if it's generally been good.

Wednesday, January 2, 2008

Vacation?

I need to learn not to fly anywhere on vacations - there are too many sick people that are just so happy to transfer their hacking cough to everyone within 5 rows of their seat on the plane.

And to make the experience more enjoyable is the inevitable 2 year old that will not stop screaming at a level that drowns out generally loud music from in-ear earphones.

So after I got to Wisconsin, I spent a day carrying around a box of Kleenex, then another day drugged up, then another two days finishing up the box of Kleenex as well as randomly coughing.

At least Allison was able to experience some of the small town Wisconsin lifestyle.

It snowed. And wasn't too cold - so we were able to walk around in the snow - and there was a full moon, so the shadows of the leafless trees on the snow were rather pretty as well.

We also were able to walk out on a frozen lake, and head up north to the formerly Norwegian area to see Green Bay, Sturgeon Bay and the snowy state parks up there.

And had Kopps frozen custard (yes, they still have lines when it is under 20 degrees outside - it's that good) on a snowy day.

Generally a good trip - perhaps I'll not have a cold next time we go there.

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Due to said cold and my east coast schedule, I slept through new years.

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Four matching new tires work wonders for a car's ride and handling.

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Sound Tribe Sector 9 concert coming up in a couple weeks - looking forward to that

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Things to do this year: get back to an MBA program and finish the degree... sell the house... lose the last 10 pounds I want to lose...