Saturday, October 25, 2008
Friday, October 10, 2008
Thoughts
/News/Food/
It's local pear and apple season again - time to overdose on fruit.
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/News/Weather/
The rainy season has returned mostly - glad we were able to fit in a final camping trip at the end of the season before the clouds returned - larger pics are at www.maslows.net:12110/rainier/
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/News/Economics/
Earlier in the year I made a few semi-educated guesses about the economy and invested/shuffled the 401k accordingly... let's see how I've done so far.
- with regards to the 401k - moving a vast majority of the equity positions into money market funds was smart - even small % gains are better than nothing.
However I did leave a small bit in equities as an experiment and it has been ugly - pretty much no sector has escaped the downturn and a couple have seen ~50% declines - total amount of value 'lost' year to date has been about 1.5 paychecks - academically bad, but not so in the long term
- real estate - sold the house and have stayed as far away from the housing market as possible, economically - this has been good - and until the rental to monthly payment numbers wherever I live are comparable I'll hold this mentality
- cash - currently just living frugally (no surprise to anyone that knows me I guess) and putting the remainder into higher interest online savings accounts - this is the best use of money right now in my opinion, as the trend is deflationary - just need to be aware that it will flip eventually and not losing value in real terms will matter again
Things that have surprised me - Europe seeing as much downturn as the US - I expected their market to be more conservative than the US banks. As such I strongly considered opening a Euro or CHF denominated account earlier in the year, but if everyone's market weakens together there isn't any advantage to the other currencies. The dollar has strengthened very slightly vs. those two currencies since then, but I think it's just a question of relativity.
The current news/fear about the economy - it's not that bad - if the government would have let the first few banks go bankrupt and actually followed through with a quick and orderly valuation and resale of assets at market prices it would have prevented where we are now. This is the root cause of what is paralyzing the market. No one trusts that the other person's asset valuation is correct or that they are actually solvent. So lending slows and confidence and stock prices decline. How to fix it - throwing money at the banks to prop up 'mark to model' asset values is not the answer - correct and transparent asset valuation is the answer. Let bankruptcy courts sort out the details - they're there for a reason.
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/News/Politics/
Neither candidate has given a good answer as to how they'll deal with the economic mess. Neither has really acknowledged that their grand plans of energy independence and lower taxes will not be feasible given the debt load of the US and its nearly-nationalized banks.
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That's about all for now - now that the clouds have returned I'll probably pick up on the nerd projects I talked about earlier in the year - make a couple speaker enclosures, possibly build a tube amp, play some computer games, read more of the classics, learn a new language, so on... need to be productive with this free time.
It's local pear and apple season again - time to overdose on fruit.
---------------
/News/Weather/
The rainy season has returned mostly - glad we were able to fit in a final camping trip at the end of the season before the clouds returned - larger pics are at www.maslows.net:12110/rainier/
---------------
/News/Economics/
Earlier in the year I made a few semi-educated guesses about the economy and invested/shuffled the 401k accordingly... let's see how I've done so far.
- with regards to the 401k - moving a vast majority of the equity positions into money market funds was smart - even small % gains are better than nothing.
However I did leave a small bit in equities as an experiment and it has been ugly - pretty much no sector has escaped the downturn and a couple have seen ~50% declines - total amount of value 'lost' year to date has been about 1.5 paychecks - academically bad, but not so in the long term
- real estate - sold the house and have stayed as far away from the housing market as possible, economically - this has been good - and until the rental to monthly payment numbers wherever I live are comparable I'll hold this mentality
- cash - currently just living frugally (no surprise to anyone that knows me I guess) and putting the remainder into higher interest online savings accounts - this is the best use of money right now in my opinion, as the trend is deflationary - just need to be aware that it will flip eventually and not losing value in real terms will matter again
Things that have surprised me - Europe seeing as much downturn as the US - I expected their market to be more conservative than the US banks. As such I strongly considered opening a Euro or CHF denominated account earlier in the year, but if everyone's market weakens together there isn't any advantage to the other currencies. The dollar has strengthened very slightly vs. those two currencies since then, but I think it's just a question of relativity.
The current news/fear about the economy - it's not that bad - if the government would have let the first few banks go bankrupt and actually followed through with a quick and orderly valuation and resale of assets at market prices it would have prevented where we are now. This is the root cause of what is paralyzing the market. No one trusts that the other person's asset valuation is correct or that they are actually solvent. So lending slows and confidence and stock prices decline. How to fix it - throwing money at the banks to prop up 'mark to model' asset values is not the answer - correct and transparent asset valuation is the answer. Let bankruptcy courts sort out the details - they're there for a reason.
---------------
/News/Politics/
Neither candidate has given a good answer as to how they'll deal with the economic mess. Neither has really acknowledged that their grand plans of energy independence and lower taxes will not be feasible given the debt load of the US and its nearly-nationalized banks.
--------------
That's about all for now - now that the clouds have returned I'll probably pick up on the nerd projects I talked about earlier in the year - make a couple speaker enclosures, possibly build a tube amp, play some computer games, read more of the classics, learn a new language, so on... need to be productive with this free time.
Wednesday, September 24, 2008
A slavic german cooks traditional french soup:
So a couple years ago Allison gave me Thomas Keller's Bouchon cookbook. Since then I've read it but only made um, 3 things from it (I'm not big on recipes). However the french onion soup worked out so well I really should dig deeper into this massive book for more inspiration.
And it is more inspiration than actual instruction - as the recipe spends about half a page on actual ingredients and procedures, but an additional page and a half on the quality aspects of it - like where the flavors come from and why even though it sounds interminably long, it is important to cook the onions in the butter for ~5 hours over a very low heat (which essentially turned the Walla Walla local onions into what you'd call candy in a blind tasting - they were that sweet)
I do wish I made the stock as opposed to using store bought though - it didn't add much to the flavor profile of the soup. The onions dominated the soup, and combined with melted emmentaler and local aged cheddar cheese and some croutons made from homemade bread it was an excellent dish.
It's actually really easy and cheap (under $20 for 6 servings - about $3 per serving!) to make - especially if you don't mind leaving a pot unattended on the stove while the onions very slowly melt.
And it is more inspiration than actual instruction - as the recipe spends about half a page on actual ingredients and procedures, but an additional page and a half on the quality aspects of it - like where the flavors come from and why even though it sounds interminably long, it is important to cook the onions in the butter for ~5 hours over a very low heat (which essentially turned the Walla Walla local onions into what you'd call candy in a blind tasting - they were that sweet)
I do wish I made the stock as opposed to using store bought though - it didn't add much to the flavor profile of the soup. The onions dominated the soup, and combined with melted emmentaler and local aged cheddar cheese and some croutons made from homemade bread it was an excellent dish.
It's actually really easy and cheap (under $20 for 6 servings - about $3 per serving!) to make - especially if you don't mind leaving a pot unattended on the stove while the onions very slowly melt.
Saturday, September 20, 2008
If you have a dollar denominated savings account, read these.
http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/09/20/no-deal/
http://calculatedrisk.blogspot.com/2008/09/some-thoughts-on-bailout.html
Seems that they're just throwing money at the problem rather than addressing the solution. One last huge giveaway to the favored corporations/supporters before the election I suppose. It's a cynical outlook, but given the information at hand, it may not be far from the truth.
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Oh, and Lucky-Charms-Treats, in the same approach as Rice-Krispy-Treats, is a good idea in theory, but the cereal is too dense in practice. Still tastes good, but has the consistency of a dense melty granola bar rather than a Rice-Krispy-Treat.
http://calculatedrisk.blogspot.com/2008/09/some-thoughts-on-bailout.html
Seems that they're just throwing money at the problem rather than addressing the solution. One last huge giveaway to the favored corporations/supporters before the election I suppose. It's a cynical outlook, but given the information at hand, it may not be far from the truth.
------------------
Oh, and Lucky-Charms-Treats, in the same approach as Rice-Krispy-Treats, is a good idea in theory, but the cereal is too dense in practice. Still tastes good, but has the consistency of a dense melty granola bar rather than a Rice-Krispy-Treat.
Friday, September 19, 2008
How to spend it.
Say you had a trillion dollars. It's a nice round figure. And say you were in a position of leadership of a country.
How would you spend it?
- Destroy some bridges and bunkers on the other side of the world, then oppress the citizens of those countries for a decade?
- Give it to your friends so they can save their failed financial institutions (which they ran into the ground) and still earn their year end bonuses while simultaneously screwing over the individual shareholders and taxpayers?
- Universal healthcare for all citizens of your country, along with lots of nice brand new hosptials?
- Repair all the 50+ year old crumbling transportation and utilities infrastructure with environmentally responsible and sustainable options?
I'm rather disappointed that given this situation the former two choices won out over the later.
Why pay taxes or give time and effort to support the system that consistently makes these decisions? There has to be a better way.
I know I know - all these bad choices haven't affected day to day life yet - though yet is the key word. Other countries have lived through rough financial times and come out the other side intact - but why with all the productivity/prosperity that is possible is a rough financial time even an option for this country.
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In that day to day life - http://www.skilletstreetfood.com/ - 3 people in an old Airstream trailer serving up decent lunch food in and around downtown Seattle - different location every day - many local ingredients (the berry crisp was great) and the food is well prepared overall (fried chicken was too greasy but still flavorful).
Also the local Greek Orthodox church is holding their fall festival this weekend - looking forward to the spanakopita.
How would you spend it?
- Destroy some bridges and bunkers on the other side of the world, then oppress the citizens of those countries for a decade?
- Give it to your friends so they can save their failed financial institutions (which they ran into the ground) and still earn their year end bonuses while simultaneously screwing over the individual shareholders and taxpayers?
- Universal healthcare for all citizens of your country, along with lots of nice brand new hosptials?
- Repair all the 50+ year old crumbling transportation and utilities infrastructure with environmentally responsible and sustainable options?
I'm rather disappointed that given this situation the former two choices won out over the later.
Why pay taxes or give time and effort to support the system that consistently makes these decisions? There has to be a better way.
I know I know - all these bad choices haven't affected day to day life yet - though yet is the key word. Other countries have lived through rough financial times and come out the other side intact - but why with all the productivity/prosperity that is possible is a rough financial time even an option for this country.
-------------------
In that day to day life - http://www.skilletstreetfood.com/ - 3 people in an old Airstream trailer serving up decent lunch food in and around downtown Seattle - different location every day - many local ingredients (the berry crisp was great) and the food is well prepared overall (fried chicken was too greasy but still flavorful).
Also the local Greek Orthodox church is holding their fall festival this weekend - looking forward to the spanakopita.
Sunday, September 14, 2008
One of those 'Oh $#!^ moments
So - when is the most inconvenient time to drop a bottle of [RED] wine...
Well, when it is full, so that the splash effect/spillage is greatest...
How about when you're on a hard surface floor... like a kitchen floor...
Add in a large appliance - say, when you're putting it in the refrigerator...
And that adds up to quite the mess to clean up - wine and glass under the fridge, splashed inside the fridge, up on the wall - 750mL for paper towels to absorb...
Fun times.
At least it was only 3 buck chuck.
Well, when it is full, so that the splash effect/spillage is greatest...
How about when you're on a hard surface floor... like a kitchen floor...
Add in a large appliance - say, when you're putting it in the refrigerator...
And that adds up to quite the mess to clean up - wine and glass under the fridge, splashed inside the fridge, up on the wall - 750mL for paper towels to absorb...
Fun times.
At least it was only 3 buck chuck.
Thursday, September 4, 2008
Is it funny or sad or scary that this is a publicly stated point of view.
A few links to the same issue:
- http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/09/02/palins-church-may-have-sh_n_123205.html
- http://thinkprogress.org/2008/09/02/palin-iraq-god/
- http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080903/ap_on_el_pr/cvn_palin_iraq_war
We've just seen the effects of 8 years of ignorant/evangelistic leadership... is it a good idea to have someone like this behind a rather elderly presidential candidate?
- http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/09/02/palins-church-may-have-sh_n_123205.html
- http://thinkprogress.org/2008/09/02/palin-iraq-god/
- http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080903/ap_on_el_pr/cvn_palin_iraq_war
We've just seen the effects of 8 years of ignorant/evangelistic leadership... is it a good idea to have someone like this behind a rather elderly presidential candidate?
Summer
Lack of posting has been due to the wonderful temperate August weather out here. It's been sunny and mid 70's for the last week or two - brilliant! Lots of walking around the city - headed to Mt. Rainier this weekend for some hiking/camping and to give the new camera a good workout.
Saturday, August 23, 2008
Weekend
Parents visited last weekend - quiet week since. Was rainy for a few days. Now it's brilliant again.
Looking forward to just walking around the city for a few hours after work... maybe get a cappuccino, sit on a bench and look at the mountains for a bit. Sounds like a fine way to spend an afternoon.
Looking forward to just walking around the city for a few hours after work... maybe get a cappuccino, sit on a bench and look at the mountains for a bit. Sounds like a fine way to spend an afternoon.
Thursday, August 14, 2008
Financial Nerd Time
Inflation... the current economic lightning rod of the media. People see oil/gas prices rising, food costs going up as a response, so on. However does this matter, and is this a bad thing?
First point - there are many definitions of inflation, and many different ways to calculate it. Are they referring to the expansion of the money supply (more dollars in circulation thus diluting the buying power of $1) or the change in prices of consumer goods (stuff costs more this year than last year) or one of the other measures (money supply including debt or wage inflation, so on)? What measure really matters to the individual?
It seems from the normal media that they are focusing on the consumer price index as a measure of inflation. ( Most recent numbers are here: http://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/cpi.pdf ) Basically - take a number of standard goods and compare prices month to month, year to year. This is commonly thought of as the price of a gallon of milk and loaf of bread measurement - what cost $5 last year now costs $6, thus there must be inflation.
However what if, over time, consumer prices go up but average wages do not. Say average wages were $10/hr and the milk/bread combo cost $5. Fast forward 5 years and assume the same job pays $12/hr but the milk/bread combo now costs $7. Wages have increased 20% but the prices of the standard consumer goods have increased 40%.
Will this person still buy the same gallon of milk and loaf of bread, or will they, over time, find those goods too expensive and just not buy them anymore? Should the prices drop to fit the wages, or should the wages rise to fit the prices?
It seems to me that wages are more the determining factor in inflation, and by all statistics I've seen, on average, in the US, wages have increased over the years, but at a rate no where close to the reported consumer price inflation levels. (Quick summary - over time nominal wages are up, real wages are down)
Over the last 5 years or so people have been able to offset this wage deflation by using debt - home equity and other cheap credit. However eventually it was realized that the actual money had to come from somewhere, and the banks and now the individuals that used debt are trying to figure out where to find some.
The answer for part of it is the federal government via taxpayers (or more accurately: debt to be repaid by future taxes) - thus the bailouts to various large financial institutions and generous lending terms to others. The homeowner assistance act and various economic stimulus checks were other tiny federal interventions in the overall market.
However statistically the actual money supply hasn't increased at a the same rate as the CPI either (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Money_supply#United_States) so this isn't where the money is coming from either. There's a lot of new debt, but that is being bought up by our trading partners (mostly as political goodwill it seems at this point, as demand for their products will drop due to these problems as well)
All signs are pointing to the recent price hikes as the main measure of inflation that is notably above normal... what if prices were to drop?
Would businesses that expanded to meet the illusory demand increases over the last decade lose money- yes, would some that expanded too far fail - yes. Would businesses that had more stable, longer term projections be affected - yes as their business has probably been better than average over the last few years, but they would not have nearly as bad a time returning to business as usual as the expansionary ones.
It seems to me that left alone the market will correct all of these recent debts/excesses on its own. All this government intervention is doing is drawing out the period of the correction (with the assumption that the negative effects will be less severe, fewer businesses will fail, etc... though this is a contentious point on economics blogs) and using lots of debt/future earnings of American citizens, to do so.
Is this inflationary... in the short term no, I think we're looking at deflation in the short term. In the long term... yes, the US has many debts it must pay back... but over what time period do they have to be paid back, and who will call them in and when?
First point - there are many definitions of inflation, and many different ways to calculate it. Are they referring to the expansion of the money supply (more dollars in circulation thus diluting the buying power of $1) or the change in prices of consumer goods (stuff costs more this year than last year) or one of the other measures (money supply including debt or wage inflation, so on)? What measure really matters to the individual?
It seems from the normal media that they are focusing on the consumer price index as a measure of inflation. ( Most recent numbers are here: http://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/cpi.pdf ) Basically - take a number of standard goods and compare prices month to month, year to year. This is commonly thought of as the price of a gallon of milk and loaf of bread measurement - what cost $5 last year now costs $6, thus there must be inflation.
However what if, over time, consumer prices go up but average wages do not. Say average wages were $10/hr and the milk/bread combo cost $5. Fast forward 5 years and assume the same job pays $12/hr but the milk/bread combo now costs $7. Wages have increased 20% but the prices of the standard consumer goods have increased 40%.
Will this person still buy the same gallon of milk and loaf of bread, or will they, over time, find those goods too expensive and just not buy them anymore? Should the prices drop to fit the wages, or should the wages rise to fit the prices?
It seems to me that wages are more the determining factor in inflation, and by all statistics I've seen, on average, in the US, wages have increased over the years, but at a rate no where close to the reported consumer price inflation levels. (Quick summary - over time nominal wages are up, real wages are down)
Over the last 5 years or so people have been able to offset this wage deflation by using debt - home equity and other cheap credit. However eventually it was realized that the actual money had to come from somewhere, and the banks and now the individuals that used debt are trying to figure out where to find some.
The answer for part of it is the federal government via taxpayers (or more accurately: debt to be repaid by future taxes) - thus the bailouts to various large financial institutions and generous lending terms to others. The homeowner assistance act and various economic stimulus checks were other tiny federal interventions in the overall market.
However statistically the actual money supply hasn't increased at a the same rate as the CPI either (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Money_supply#United_States) so this isn't where the money is coming from either. There's a lot of new debt, but that is being bought up by our trading partners (mostly as political goodwill it seems at this point, as demand for their products will drop due to these problems as well)
All signs are pointing to the recent price hikes as the main measure of inflation that is notably above normal... what if prices were to drop?
Would businesses that expanded to meet the illusory demand increases over the last decade lose money- yes, would some that expanded too far fail - yes. Would businesses that had more stable, longer term projections be affected - yes as their business has probably been better than average over the last few years, but they would not have nearly as bad a time returning to business as usual as the expansionary ones.
It seems to me that left alone the market will correct all of these recent debts/excesses on its own. All this government intervention is doing is drawing out the period of the correction (with the assumption that the negative effects will be less severe, fewer businesses will fail, etc... though this is a contentious point on economics blogs) and using lots of debt/future earnings of American citizens, to do so.
Is this inflationary... in the short term no, I think we're looking at deflation in the short term. In the long term... yes, the US has many debts it must pay back... but over what time period do they have to be paid back, and who will call them in and when?
Sunday, August 10, 2008
Quiet weekend.
Still on the Tues-Sat rotation - ran some errands last night - curry chicken/spinach/rice for dinner - fell asleep early - I'm old already.
Cloudy Sunday - probably going to walk around and check out some other apartments in the city - see if it's worth getting an older or smaller place to save a couple hundred a month. Probably not, but it's worth exploring at least. Good day for a cappuccino in any case.
Still undecided on what to do about advanced degrees, career options, where to go next. I just have this sense that I should do something, though what that is... no clue. As for schooling: business... it would be a good line on the resume, but as far as a path to interesting jobs... limited. More engineering... lots of work, perhaps some reward in this part of the country... and very hard to do part time. History... I read enough of it as it is... not sure where that would lead to other than writing about technical topics... which wouldn't be a bad side gig to computer nerding.
On the other hand... interesting side jobs... I'd need to find something that I both like to do, is a rather niche market (high margins) and is productive - i.e. - rebuilding old german car parts (suspension bits, alternators... could set up a webpage with order forms and all that stuff) - or making some kind of high margin food item to sell at a farmer's market on saturday mornings... not sure how to approach this yet, but there are some ideas floating around.
Cloudy Sunday - probably going to walk around and check out some other apartments in the city - see if it's worth getting an older or smaller place to save a couple hundred a month. Probably not, but it's worth exploring at least. Good day for a cappuccino in any case.
Still undecided on what to do about advanced degrees, career options, where to go next. I just have this sense that I should do something, though what that is... no clue. As for schooling: business... it would be a good line on the resume, but as far as a path to interesting jobs... limited. More engineering... lots of work, perhaps some reward in this part of the country... and very hard to do part time. History... I read enough of it as it is... not sure where that would lead to other than writing about technical topics... which wouldn't be a bad side gig to computer nerding.
On the other hand... interesting side jobs... I'd need to find something that I both like to do, is a rather niche market (high margins) and is productive - i.e. - rebuilding old german car parts (suspension bits, alternators... could set up a webpage with order forms and all that stuff) - or making some kind of high margin food item to sell at a farmer's market on saturday mornings... not sure how to approach this yet, but there are some ideas floating around.
Monday, August 4, 2008
Vacationing
Tim and Stephanie visited this past week - so I took a few days off to tour guide/travel around the region some more. And get them addicted to Piroshki Piroshki.
Notes:
Hurricane Ridge - been there 3 times, it's been an entirely different place all 3 times. First time in April there was near 10 ft. of snow on the ground. Second time over the 4th of July there was moderate snow cover though patches of dry ground with small flowers. Latest time at the end of July there was grass and normal trail hiking and tons and tons of traffic.
The Hoh Rainforest - great place for an overnight camping trip - bit far for a day trip. Seems it would be better in winter/early spring as it would be greener - lots of the mosses were dormant presently. The Hoh river looked great at this time of year though - very light blue due to glacial meltwater.
Portland - still weird. The Japanese gardens were greener than earlier in the year - very tranquil place. Found a locally produced Absinthe - for better and for worse you can sample it along side a traditional French absinthe - it's perhaps smoother but more candy-tasting - less floral. And the necessary maple bacon donut. Since the original sampling I'm not ashamed to bring home-cooked bacon to our local donut shop and just buy a maple bar. It's that good of a combination.
Vancouver BC - still cloudy/rainy even in August - oh well, even more excuse to visit the art museum. Interesting exhibit on comics/manga/animation - not a culture I'm that familiar with outside of Pixar/Family Guy, but it explained some of the history behind the different media. At least it cleared up for the final day and a half - being able to walk around Stanley park on a clear day is worth the trip on its own.
A border crossing between WA and BC... what's the point? The roads change to km, but that's about it. Just holds up traffic... for an HOUR AND A HALF... state DMV offices are better run than this. really.
Back to the Tues-Sat work rotation. It's not bad - the Saturday calls reminded me of my previous job - rather ragged people having to implement changes on the weekend after working all week. Even if they're getting paid overtime it's not worth it. I'm really glad now to have two defined days off where I don't have to think about work at all. Even if it's Sunday/Monday - one day for errands, the other for relaxing... works out really well.
Headed into a quiet week and a half around the city before the parents fly out for a long weekend and a Prairie Home Companion show.
Notes:
Hurricane Ridge - been there 3 times, it's been an entirely different place all 3 times. First time in April there was near 10 ft. of snow on the ground. Second time over the 4th of July there was moderate snow cover though patches of dry ground with small flowers. Latest time at the end of July there was grass and normal trail hiking and tons and tons of traffic.
The Hoh Rainforest - great place for an overnight camping trip - bit far for a day trip. Seems it would be better in winter/early spring as it would be greener - lots of the mosses were dormant presently. The Hoh river looked great at this time of year though - very light blue due to glacial meltwater.
Portland - still weird. The Japanese gardens were greener than earlier in the year - very tranquil place. Found a locally produced Absinthe - for better and for worse you can sample it along side a traditional French absinthe - it's perhaps smoother but more candy-tasting - less floral. And the necessary maple bacon donut. Since the original sampling I'm not ashamed to bring home-cooked bacon to our local donut shop and just buy a maple bar. It's that good of a combination.
Vancouver BC - still cloudy/rainy even in August - oh well, even more excuse to visit the art museum. Interesting exhibit on comics/manga/animation - not a culture I'm that familiar with outside of Pixar/Family Guy, but it explained some of the history behind the different media. At least it cleared up for the final day and a half - being able to walk around Stanley park on a clear day is worth the trip on its own.
A border crossing between WA and BC... what's the point? The roads change to km, but that's about it. Just holds up traffic... for an HOUR AND A HALF... state DMV offices are better run than this. really.
Back to the Tues-Sat work rotation. It's not bad - the Saturday calls reminded me of my previous job - rather ragged people having to implement changes on the weekend after working all week. Even if they're getting paid overtime it's not worth it. I'm really glad now to have two defined days off where I don't have to think about work at all. Even if it's Sunday/Monday - one day for errands, the other for relaxing... works out really well.
Headed into a quiet week and a half around the city before the parents fly out for a long weekend and a Prairie Home Companion show.
Friday, July 18, 2008
Thursday, July 17, 2008
Summer!
This past week has been absolutely brilliant in the city. Slightly warm at times (low to mid 80's last weekend - 70's all this week) but all days have been sunny with low humidity.
We did the tour-guide thing for Allison's dad and Susan last weekend - definitely too much walking for them, but I think they found at least a few things to like about the city, or specifically Bainbridge Island, which was more in line with their expectations I think.
I've been catching up on sleep this week - I think due to the extended daylight (sun doesn't set until 9:30) I was shorting myself - 10:30-5 wasn't cutting it. The catching-up on reading hasn't continued at as rapid a pace, but to keep up the productivity I did manage to fix the slightly rough idle (intermittent 200rpm drop in revs at idle... old spark plug) on the car with a quick 150k mile maintenance. It's now as smooth and silent as one would expect of a Mercedes.
Project for this weekend - take apart the free donor speakers and pick up some 1" thick hardwood to make the new cabinets.
One more week until the next visitors arrive and I get a bit of a vacation.
We did the tour-guide thing for Allison's dad and Susan last weekend - definitely too much walking for them, but I think they found at least a few things to like about the city, or specifically Bainbridge Island, which was more in line with their expectations I think.
I've been catching up on sleep this week - I think due to the extended daylight (sun doesn't set until 9:30) I was shorting myself - 10:30-5 wasn't cutting it. The catching-up on reading hasn't continued at as rapid a pace, but to keep up the productivity I did manage to fix the slightly rough idle (intermittent 200rpm drop in revs at idle... old spark plug) on the car with a quick 150k mile maintenance. It's now as smooth and silent as one would expect of a Mercedes.
Project for this weekend - take apart the free donor speakers and pick up some 1" thick hardwood to make the new cabinets.
One more week until the next visitors arrive and I get a bit of a vacation.
Thursday, July 10, 2008
Um, Thanks.
So this week we received the 'Economic Stimulus' check. And I promptly sent it to earn interest in a foreign owned bank. What part of the US economy will that stimulate? How many others did the same thing, either on principle or practical logic? (since US based banks are offering even worse interest rates presently) What was the government's aim in going through all the expense and trouble?
The answer, as far as I can tell, is to attempt to prevent a recession, per definition, though not per practical application.
Read this: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Recession
According to one widespread definition, a recession occurs when real growth is negative for two or more successive quarters of a year. However, there are differing definitions: In the United States, the National Bureau of Economic Research's (NBER) Business Cycle Dating Committee ultimately decides whether the economy has fallen into a recession. The NBER defines a recession as "a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in real GDP, real income, employment, industrial production and wholesale-retail sales."[1]
Essentially, the gamble is that by returning some taxpayer money, those taxpayers will use said money to make a few key economic (consumer activity based) indicators tick positive for one quarter this year (as most to all have been falling since fall of 2007 - the economics-nerd accepted start date of the current recession). Combine that with some political pressure on the NBER, and a recession and all the attendant doom-and-gloom media coverage could thus be avoided.
However practically can an extra say $1k on average per taxpaying family in the US matter, and does that 'fix' the problems with the economy that got us into this mess?
1) Debt? Apparently most people have some. (Yay for being an outlier here.) The smart money would use the $1k to pay down some debt to reduce the interest burden. Though $1k doesn't seem to even make a dent in the average US household's debt. How much is out there?
- On average, today's consumer has a total of 13 credit obligations on record at a credit bureau. These include credit cards (such as department store charge cards, gas cards, and bank cards) and installment loans (auto loans, mortgage loans, student loans, etc.). Not included are savings and checking accounts (typically not reported to a credit bureau). Of these 13 credit obligations, nine are likely to be credit cards and four are likely to be installment loans (Source: myfico.com).
- Fifty-one percent of the U.S. population has at least two credit cards (Source: Center for Media Research).
For credit cards:
- 29% of households owe $1,000 or more on their cards.
- 21% owe $2,000 or more.
- 6% owe $8,000 or more.
- 4% owe $10,500 or more.
- 1% owe $21,400 or more.
Summary: paying down debt won't do much to stimulate the economy, and even $1k per household is basically just buying time via interest (should this have been the bank stimulus plan?) rather than improving the overall picture.
References: http://moneycentral.msn.com/content/Banking/creditcardsmarts/P74808.asp , http://www.creditcards.com/credit-card-news/credit-card-industry-facts-personal-debt-statistics-1276.php
2) Consumer goods? How many people that get ~$1k back from last year's tax payments will spend it on a new tv/stereo/his and hers iphones, or other non-essential consumer goods? Would it be a sign of an improving economy or a rather sick one that people would think of these checks as 'free money' and treat it accordingly.
3) ? ... I may be missing something, but I wonder if there will be statistics collected on how this money is actually used.
4) Doesn't this country have massive national debt that it needs to pay down and if so why is it giving money back to taxpayers?!
The senate voting record on this mess is here: http://senate.gov/legislative/LIS/roll_call_lists/roll_call_vote_cfm.cfm?congress=110&session=2&vote=00010
And the house voting record is here: http://www.govtrack.us/congress/vote.xpd?vote=h2008-25
The answer, as far as I can tell, is to attempt to prevent a recession, per definition, though not per practical application.
Read this: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Recession
According to one widespread definition, a recession occurs when real growth is negative for two or more successive quarters of a year. However, there are differing definitions: In the United States, the National Bureau of Economic Research's (NBER) Business Cycle Dating Committee ultimately decides whether the economy has fallen into a recession. The NBER defines a recession as "a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in real GDP, real income, employment, industrial production and wholesale-retail sales."[1]
Essentially, the gamble is that by returning some taxpayer money, those taxpayers will use said money to make a few key economic (consumer activity based) indicators tick positive for one quarter this year (as most to all have been falling since fall of 2007 - the economics-nerd accepted start date of the current recession). Combine that with some political pressure on the NBER, and a recession and all the attendant doom-and-gloom media coverage could thus be avoided.
However practically can an extra say $1k on average per taxpaying family in the US matter, and does that 'fix' the problems with the economy that got us into this mess?
1) Debt? Apparently most people have some. (Yay for being an outlier here.) The smart money would use the $1k to pay down some debt to reduce the interest burden. Though $1k doesn't seem to even make a dent in the average US household's debt. How much is out there?
- On average, today's consumer has a total of 13 credit obligations on record at a credit bureau. These include credit cards (such as department store charge cards, gas cards, and bank cards) and installment loans (auto loans, mortgage loans, student loans, etc.). Not included are savings and checking accounts (typically not reported to a credit bureau). Of these 13 credit obligations, nine are likely to be credit cards and four are likely to be installment loans (Source: myfico.com).
- Fifty-one percent of the U.S. population has at least two credit cards (Source: Center for Media Research).
For credit cards:
- 29% of households owe $1,000 or more on their cards.
- 21% owe $2,000 or more.
- 6% owe $8,000 or more.
- 4% owe $10,500 or more.
- 1% owe $21,400 or more.
Summary: paying down debt won't do much to stimulate the economy, and even $1k per household is basically just buying time via interest (should this have been the bank stimulus plan?) rather than improving the overall picture.
References: http://moneycentral.msn.com/content/Banking/creditcardsmarts/P74808.asp , http://www.creditcards.com/credit-card-news/credit-card-industry-facts-personal-debt-statistics-1276.php
2) Consumer goods? How many people that get ~$1k back from last year's tax payments will spend it on a new tv/stereo/his and hers iphones, or other non-essential consumer goods? Would it be a sign of an improving economy or a rather sick one that people would think of these checks as 'free money' and treat it accordingly.
3) ? ... I may be missing something, but I wonder if there will be statistics collected on how this money is actually used.
4) Doesn't this country have massive national debt that it needs to pay down and if so why is it giving money back to taxpayers?!
The senate voting record on this mess is here: http://senate.gov/legislative/LIS/roll_call_lists/roll_call_vote_cfm.cfm?congress=110&session=2&vote=00010
And the house voting record is here: http://www.govtrack.us/congress/vote.xpd?vote=h2008-25
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