Thursday, September 4, 2008
Is it funny or sad or scary that this is a publicly stated point of view.
- http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/09/02/palins-church-may-have-sh_n_123205.html
- http://thinkprogress.org/2008/09/02/palin-iraq-god/
- http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080903/ap_on_el_pr/cvn_palin_iraq_war
We've just seen the effects of 8 years of ignorant/evangelistic leadership... is it a good idea to have someone like this behind a rather elderly presidential candidate?
Summer
Saturday, August 23, 2008
Weekend
Looking forward to just walking around the city for a few hours after work... maybe get a cappuccino, sit on a bench and look at the mountains for a bit. Sounds like a fine way to spend an afternoon.
Thursday, August 14, 2008
Financial Nerd Time
First point - there are many definitions of inflation, and many different ways to calculate it. Are they referring to the expansion of the money supply (more dollars in circulation thus diluting the buying power of $1) or the change in prices of consumer goods (stuff costs more this year than last year) or one of the other measures (money supply including debt or wage inflation, so on)? What measure really matters to the individual?
It seems from the normal media that they are focusing on the consumer price index as a measure of inflation. ( Most recent numbers are here: http://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/cpi.pdf ) Basically - take a number of standard goods and compare prices month to month, year to year. This is commonly thought of as the price of a gallon of milk and loaf of bread measurement - what cost $5 last year now costs $6, thus there must be inflation.
However what if, over time, consumer prices go up but average wages do not. Say average wages were $10/hr and the milk/bread combo cost $5. Fast forward 5 years and assume the same job pays $12/hr but the milk/bread combo now costs $7. Wages have increased 20% but the prices of the standard consumer goods have increased 40%.
Will this person still buy the same gallon of milk and loaf of bread, or will they, over time, find those goods too expensive and just not buy them anymore? Should the prices drop to fit the wages, or should the wages rise to fit the prices?
It seems to me that wages are more the determining factor in inflation, and by all statistics I've seen, on average, in the US, wages have increased over the years, but at a rate no where close to the reported consumer price inflation levels. (Quick summary - over time nominal wages are up, real wages are down)
Over the last 5 years or so people have been able to offset this wage deflation by using debt - home equity and other cheap credit. However eventually it was realized that the actual money had to come from somewhere, and the banks and now the individuals that used debt are trying to figure out where to find some.
The answer for part of it is the federal government via taxpayers (or more accurately: debt to be repaid by future taxes) - thus the bailouts to various large financial institutions and generous lending terms to others. The homeowner assistance act and various economic stimulus checks were other tiny federal interventions in the overall market.
However statistically the actual money supply hasn't increased at a the same rate as the CPI either (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Money_supply#United_States) so this isn't where the money is coming from either. There's a lot of new debt, but that is being bought up by our trading partners (mostly as political goodwill it seems at this point, as demand for their products will drop due to these problems as well)
All signs are pointing to the recent price hikes as the main measure of inflation that is notably above normal... what if prices were to drop?
Would businesses that expanded to meet the illusory demand increases over the last decade lose money- yes, would some that expanded too far fail - yes. Would businesses that had more stable, longer term projections be affected - yes as their business has probably been better than average over the last few years, but they would not have nearly as bad a time returning to business as usual as the expansionary ones.
It seems to me that left alone the market will correct all of these recent debts/excesses on its own. All this government intervention is doing is drawing out the period of the correction (with the assumption that the negative effects will be less severe, fewer businesses will fail, etc... though this is a contentious point on economics blogs) and using lots of debt/future earnings of American citizens, to do so.
Is this inflationary... in the short term no, I think we're looking at deflation in the short term. In the long term... yes, the US has many debts it must pay back... but over what time period do they have to be paid back, and who will call them in and when?
Sunday, August 10, 2008
Quiet weekend.
Cloudy Sunday - probably going to walk around and check out some other apartments in the city - see if it's worth getting an older or smaller place to save a couple hundred a month. Probably not, but it's worth exploring at least. Good day for a cappuccino in any case.
Still undecided on what to do about advanced degrees, career options, where to go next. I just have this sense that I should do something, though what that is... no clue. As for schooling: business... it would be a good line on the resume, but as far as a path to interesting jobs... limited. More engineering... lots of work, perhaps some reward in this part of the country... and very hard to do part time. History... I read enough of it as it is... not sure where that would lead to other than writing about technical topics... which wouldn't be a bad side gig to computer nerding.
On the other hand... interesting side jobs... I'd need to find something that I both like to do, is a rather niche market (high margins) and is productive - i.e. - rebuilding old german car parts (suspension bits, alternators... could set up a webpage with order forms and all that stuff) - or making some kind of high margin food item to sell at a farmer's market on saturday mornings... not sure how to approach this yet, but there are some ideas floating around.
Monday, August 4, 2008
Vacationing
Notes:
Hurricane Ridge - been there 3 times, it's been an entirely different place all 3 times. First time in April there was near 10 ft. of snow on the ground. Second time over the 4th of July there was moderate snow cover though patches of dry ground with small flowers. Latest time at the end of July there was grass and normal trail hiking and tons and tons of traffic.
The Hoh Rainforest - great place for an overnight camping trip - bit far for a day trip. Seems it would be better in winter/early spring as it would be greener - lots of the mosses were dormant presently. The Hoh river looked great at this time of year though - very light blue due to glacial meltwater.
Portland - still weird. The Japanese gardens were greener than earlier in the year - very tranquil place. Found a locally produced Absinthe - for better and for worse you can sample it along side a traditional French absinthe - it's perhaps smoother but more candy-tasting - less floral. And the necessary maple bacon donut. Since the original sampling I'm not ashamed to bring home-cooked bacon to our local donut shop and just buy a maple bar. It's that good of a combination.
Vancouver BC - still cloudy/rainy even in August - oh well, even more excuse to visit the art museum. Interesting exhibit on comics/manga/animation - not a culture I'm that familiar with outside of Pixar/Family Guy, but it explained some of the history behind the different media. At least it cleared up for the final day and a half - being able to walk around Stanley park on a clear day is worth the trip on its own.
A border crossing between WA and BC... what's the point? The roads change to km, but that's about it. Just holds up traffic... for an HOUR AND A HALF... state DMV offices are better run than this. really.
Back to the Tues-Sat work rotation. It's not bad - the Saturday calls reminded me of my previous job - rather ragged people having to implement changes on the weekend after working all week. Even if they're getting paid overtime it's not worth it. I'm really glad now to have two defined days off where I don't have to think about work at all. Even if it's Sunday/Monday - one day for errands, the other for relaxing... works out really well.
Headed into a quiet week and a half around the city before the parents fly out for a long weekend and a Prairie Home Companion show.
Friday, July 18, 2008
Thursday, July 17, 2008
Summer!
We did the tour-guide thing for Allison's dad and Susan last weekend - definitely too much walking for them, but I think they found at least a few things to like about the city, or specifically Bainbridge Island, which was more in line with their expectations I think.
I've been catching up on sleep this week - I think due to the extended daylight (sun doesn't set until 9:30) I was shorting myself - 10:30-5 wasn't cutting it. The catching-up on reading hasn't continued at as rapid a pace, but to keep up the productivity I did manage to fix the slightly rough idle (intermittent 200rpm drop in revs at idle... old spark plug) on the car with a quick 150k mile maintenance. It's now as smooth and silent as one would expect of a Mercedes.
Project for this weekend - take apart the free donor speakers and pick up some 1" thick hardwood to make the new cabinets.
One more week until the next visitors arrive and I get a bit of a vacation.
Thursday, July 10, 2008
Um, Thanks.
The answer, as far as I can tell, is to attempt to prevent a recession, per definition, though not per practical application.
Read this: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Recession
According to one widespread definition, a recession occurs when real growth is negative for two or more successive quarters of a year. However, there are differing definitions: In the United States, the National Bureau of Economic Research's (NBER) Business Cycle Dating Committee ultimately decides whether the economy has fallen into a recession. The NBER defines a recession as "a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in real GDP, real income, employment, industrial production and wholesale-retail sales."[1]
Essentially, the gamble is that by returning some taxpayer money, those taxpayers will use said money to make a few key economic (consumer activity based) indicators tick positive for one quarter this year (as most to all have been falling since fall of 2007 - the economics-nerd accepted start date of the current recession). Combine that with some political pressure on the NBER, and a recession and all the attendant doom-and-gloom media coverage could thus be avoided.
However practically can an extra say $1k on average per taxpaying family in the US matter, and does that 'fix' the problems with the economy that got us into this mess?
1) Debt? Apparently most people have some. (Yay for being an outlier here.) The smart money would use the $1k to pay down some debt to reduce the interest burden. Though $1k doesn't seem to even make a dent in the average US household's debt. How much is out there?
- On average, today's consumer has a total of 13 credit obligations on record at a credit bureau. These include credit cards (such as department store charge cards, gas cards, and bank cards) and installment loans (auto loans, mortgage loans, student loans, etc.). Not included are savings and checking accounts (typically not reported to a credit bureau). Of these 13 credit obligations, nine are likely to be credit cards and four are likely to be installment loans (Source: myfico.com).
- Fifty-one percent of the U.S. population has at least two credit cards (Source: Center for Media Research).
For credit cards:
- 29% of households owe $1,000 or more on their cards.
- 21% owe $2,000 or more.
- 6% owe $8,000 or more.
- 4% owe $10,500 or more.
- 1% owe $21,400 or more.
Summary: paying down debt won't do much to stimulate the economy, and even $1k per household is basically just buying time via interest (should this have been the bank stimulus plan?) rather than improving the overall picture.
References: http://moneycentral.msn.com/content/Banking/creditcardsmarts/P74808.asp , http://www.creditcards.com/credit-card-news/credit-card-industry-facts-personal-debt-statistics-1276.php
2) Consumer goods? How many people that get ~$1k back from last year's tax payments will spend it on a new tv/stereo/his and hers iphones, or other non-essential consumer goods? Would it be a sign of an improving economy or a rather sick one that people would think of these checks as 'free money' and treat it accordingly.
3) ? ... I may be missing something, but I wonder if there will be statistics collected on how this money is actually used.
4) Doesn't this country have massive national debt that it needs to pay down and if so why is it giving money back to taxpayers?!
The senate voting record on this mess is here: http://senate.gov/legislative/LIS/roll_call_lists/roll_call_vote_cfm.cfm?congress=110&session=2&vote=00010
And the house voting record is here: http://www.govtrack.us/congress/vote.xpd?vote=h2008-25
There seems to be an echo in here...
http://senate.gov/legislative/LIS/roll_call_lists/roll_call_vote_cfm.cfm?congress=110&session=2&vote=00168
For anyone that cares for the rule of law, recognize the Yea column and use that as a template of who to vote out of office next time around.
Wednesday, July 2, 2008
Not an elegant solution, but we back!
If the ISP blocks incoming port 80, I offer up port 12110. Took me ah 6 months, but the site is back online. Sadly, yes, via IIS.
Design and content update to come soon.
Monday, June 30, 2008
Total Read from the list: 23
1) Look at the list and bold those we have read.
2) Italicize those we intend to read.
3) Underline the books we LOVE
4) Reprint this list in our own blogs
1 Pride and Prejudice - Jane Austen
2 The Lord of the Rings - JRR Tolkien
3 Jane Eyre - Charlotte Bronte
4 Harry Potter series - JK Rowling
5 To Kill a Mockingbird - Harper Lee
6 The Bible
7 Wuthering Heights - Emily Bronte
8 Nineteen Eighty Four - George Orwell
9 His Dark Materials - Philip Pullman
10 Great Expectations - Charles Dickens
11 Little Women - Louisa M Alcott
12 Tess of the D'Urbervilles - Thomas Hardy
13 Catch 22 - Joseph Heller
14 Complete Works of Shakespeare
15 Rebecca - Daphne Du Maurier
16 The Hobbit - JRR Tolkien
17 Birdsong - Sebastian Faulks
18 Catcher in the Rye - JD Salinger
19 The Time Traveler's Wife - Audrey Niffenegger
20 Middlemarch - George Eliot
21 Gone With The Wind - Margaret Mitchell
22 The Great Gatsby - F Scott Fitzgerald
23 Bleak House - Charles Dickens
24 War and Peace - Leo Tolstoy
25 The Hitch Hiker's Guide to the Galaxy - Douglas Adams
26 Brideshead Revisited - Evelyn Waugh
27 Crime and Punishment - Fyodor Dostoyevsky
28 Grapes of Wrath - John Steinbeck
29 Alice in Wonderland - Lewis Carroll
30 The Wind in the Willows - Kenneth Grahame
31 Anna Karenina - Leo Tolstoy
32 David Copperfield - Charles Dickens
33 Chronicles of Narnia - CS Lewis
34 Emma - Jane Austen
35 Persuasion - Jane Austen
36 The Lion, The Witch and The Wardrobe - CS Lewis
37 The Kite Runner - Khaled Hosseini
38 Captain Corelli's Mandolin - Louis De Bernieres
39 Memoirs of a Geisha - Arthur Golden
40 Winnie the Pooh - AA Milne
41 Animal Farm - George Orwell
42 The Da Vinci Code - Dan Brown
43 One Hundred Years of Solitude - Gabriel Garcia Marquez
44 A Prayer for Owen Meaney - John Irving
45 The Woman in White - Wilkie Collins
46 Anne of Green Gables - LM Montgomery
47 Far From The Madding Crowd - Thomas Hardy
48 The Handmaid's Tale - Margaret Atwood
49 Lord of the Flies - William Golding
50 Atonement - Ian McEwan
51 Life of Pi - Yann Martel
52 Dune - Frank Herbert
53 Cold Comfort Farm - Stella Gibbons
54 Sense and Sensibility - Jane Austen
55 A Suitable Boy - Vikram Seth
56 The Shadow of the Wind - Carlos Ruiz Zafon
57 A Tale Of Two Cities - Charles Dickens
58 Brave New World - Aldous Huxley
59 The Curious Incident of the Dog in the Night-time - Mark Haddon
60 Love In The Time Of Cholera - Gabriel Garcia Marquez
61 Of Mice and Men - John Steinbeck
62 Lolita - Vladimir Nabokov
63 The Secret History - Donna Tartt
64 The Lovely Bones - Alice Sebold
65 Count of Monte Cristo - Alexandre Dumas
66 On The Road - Jack Kerouac
67 Jude the Obscure - Thomas Hardy
68 Bridget Jones's Diary - Helen Fielding
69 Midnight's Children - Salman Rushdie
70 Moby Dick - Herman Melville
71 Oliver Twist - Charles Dickens
72 Dracula - Bram Stoker
73 The Secret Garden - Frances Hodgson Burnett
74 Notes From A Small Island - Bill Bryson
75 Ulysses - James Joyce
76 The Bell Jar - Sylvia Plath
77 Swallows and Amazons - Arthur Ransome
78 Germinal - Emile Zola
79 Vanity Fair - William Makepeace Thackeray
80 Possession - AS Byatt
81 A Christmas Carol - Charles Dickens
82 Cloud Atlas - David Mitchell
83 The Color Purple - Alice Walker
84 The Remains of the Day - Kazuo Ishiguro
85 Madame Bovary - Gustave Flaubert
86 A Fine Balance - Rohinton Mistry
87 Charlotte's Web - EB White
88 The Five People You Meet In Heaven - Mitch Albom
89 Adventures of Sherlock Holmes - Sir Arthur Conan Doyle
90 The Faraway Tree Collection - Enid Blyton
91 Heart of Darkness - Joseph Conrad
92 The Little Prince - Antoine De Saint-Exupery
93 The Wasp Factory - Iain Banks
94 Watership Down - Richard Adams
95 A Confederacy of Dunces - John Kennedy Toole
96 A Town Like Alice - Nevil Shute
97 The Three Musketeers - Alexandre Dumas
98 Hamlet - William Shakespeare
99 Charlie and the Chocolate Factory - Roald Dahl
100 Les Miserables - Victor Hugo
Wednesday, June 25, 2008
Hobbies / Reading
In the mean time, having a strictly 40hr/wk job with no on-call has left me with lots of free time during the week nights.
Since the move I've cleared out 90% of the old computer parts I had laying around, filtered thousands of old baseball/basketball cards for any of value and discarded the commons, filtered the 'assorted stuff' boxes - result - two fewer rubbermaid bins full of stuff than previously. I've also ripped all my CD's to properly ID3 tagged MP3's and sold a few that I knew I'd never listen to again. And cleared some old clothes out of the closet. I'm not done yet, but it's a necessary start.
After all that, it was time to read. Between 'A Fine Balance' (recommended by family) and 'Atlas Shrugged' (just never got around to it before, even though I knew it would resonate with me) it hasn't been light reading to say the least, but necessary.
Next up - we'll have a decent number of friends and family visting Seattle over the next couple months, so I won't have as much free time as previously, but I'm still thinking ahead to what to do with my off-work-hours time during the week.
What kinds of projects I could take up in the absence of school...
-I've thought about rebuilding an(other) old car - early Porsche 911's interest me from an engineering perspective, even if they do have a cult following that keeps prices high-ish.
-I'd like to make something. This is hard to do in a 700sqft apt.
- Herbs are growing, slowly. The harvest at the end of May was generous though. The oregano turned into a week's worth of pasta sauce, the thyme worked well on fresh fish over a few meals.
- I'd like to make a bookcase from lumber instead of buying Ikea next time. It's all right angles. Easy enough it seems.
- The other thing that interests me, along similar lines, is making speakers - not the specific drivers, as I can't produce magnets, but the pairing of drivers (which are cheap) to real wood enclosures. Buying complete real wood speakers is rather expensive.
On the non-productive diversion side I've thought about possibly finding a sporting club to be part of - possibly soccer, possibly sailing - unsure, though I think I'll probably veto both on the grounds of 'I could be doing something productive with this time'
That's all for now. Back to work here.
Sunday, June 15, 2008
One lap of the Olympics
Saturday morning - breakfast at home - then we caught the 8:45 ferry to Bainbridge. Kinda cloudy day, but warmer. Drove the boring hour or so to Port Angeles under increasingly sunny skies.
Good chocolate shake and fries from some small drive-in in Port Angeles - looking up at the mountains under a mostly clear sky.
Lake Crescent was iridescently blue - very clear water - want to spend some more time here next trip. Love the road along the edge of the lake - scenic and fun.
As we crossed the logging-lands between the lake and the rainforest there were many near-deserted twisty sections of asphalt- speed limit - 55, actual speed - occasionally higher.
Arrived at the Hoh rainforest in time for a late lunch. No rain in sight. Picnic lunch near the visitor's center - then wandered the 3ish miles of loop trails around there. Took many pictures of mossy trees and streams and such.
Realized we had lots of time left in the day - drove back up the road, then out to Rialto beach on the Pacific coast. Wandered around the driftwood and smooth-pebbled beach for an hour or so. Bright sunshine - great scenery.
Back to the campsite (just a few feet from the Hoh River). Dinner of curry-lentils and rice at the campsite. Good Australian Zinfandel. Stayed up to watch the fire die at about 9:30 - fell asleep minutes after that.
Woke up about 7 - clear and cool morning - disassembled camp and out by 8:45. Stopped at one of the inlet-beaches along the Pacific coast highway - took pics, but felt lazy and didn't walk down the cliff to the water.
Incrediby rapid drive south along the PCH. The 14 year old Merc got a good workout on the miles-long straightaways followed by sweeping foothills roads. For an old car with near 150,000 miles it can still run... fast.
Lunch at the Olympia farmer's market. Locally made Bratwust and Kielbasa - tasty! Picked up some morels and portobello and local onions for dinner.
Back home in time to pressure-wash the car and then wax it. Still sunny here in the city. Good weekend.
Friday, June 13, 2008
Weekend!
The general idea for the weekend is to go hiking/camping over in the Hoh rainforest (yes, I understand the disparity here - taking a sunny weekend to go to a rainforest) as well as along the Pacific Ocean coast, as there are many supposedly scenic trails over there. If there is scenery pictures will be taken to record the event.
The interview process for the MBA program was mixed - didn't get a sense of exactly what they were looking for - so we'll see what happens in a week or two when the decision letters are mailed out. If it works out, great, I'd like to finish the degree. If not, computer nerding seems to be a fine way to pass the time, though I may need to find a hobby, or at least another old Porsche to rebuild.
Thanks to all who called/left birthday messages!